Buck Naked Politics

Video: The DNC Meeting at Which Florida's Delegates Were Stripped

by Deb Cupples |   I've repeatedly explained that Florida's Republican leaders were responsible for moving Florida's primary election to an earlier date than DNC rules allowed.  Florida Democrats have absolutely no power in the legislature: today, Republicans control the State House by 76 to 43, and Republicans control the State Senate by 26 to 14.

The video below shows Florida Democratic Party leader Karen Thurman explaining that and more in August 2007 at a hearing of the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee.  It also shows that multiple members of the Rules Committee (apparently) had already decided that they wanted Florida to lose all of its delegates (though the rules call for an automatic stripping of only 50% of a state's delegates for scheduling a primary date too early).

It's sad, disgusting, and outrageous. Some people describe that hearing as a "kangaroo court," and the video seems to confirm that.

The more I learn about the DNC's inner workings, the more I consider registering as an NPA (Florida's version of Independent). Let's hope that today's DNC Rules Committee meeting goes differently -- and that the Committee decides to give back Florida's votes.  Thanks to No Quarter for posting the video.

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Hillary Gets South Dakota Newspaper's Endorsement

by Deb Cupples |   Yesterday, the editorial board of South Dakota's Argus Leader endorsed Hillary Clinton in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.  Below are some of the nice things that the editorial board had to say about Hillary:

"For the first time in memory, every state will play a role in choosing a nominee for the nation's highest office.

"Some of those parts are small, but not ours: as one of the last two primary elections, South Dakota Democrats suddenly and improbably find themselves in a starring role...."

NYT & WaPo Mis-Report on Florida & Michigan, Ignore DNC's Errors & Hypocrisy

by Deb Cupples |  This Saturday, the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee (Rules Committee) will decide whether to count Florida's and Michigan's primary votes. That committee stripped 100% of those states' delegates, because their legislatures had moved their presidential primary elections to dates earlier than the DNC's rules allowed. 

Given what happened to American media's credibility after journalists enabled the Bush Administration to sell the Iraq war to us taxpayers five years ago, one would expect America's journalists to think twice before unquestioningly transcribing anyone's talking points. 

Perhaps that's just too much to expect.  Parts of a factually flawed article from today's New York Times follow:

Gallup Says Hillary Does Better than Obama Against McCain

by Deb Cupples |   Yesterday, Gallup reported:

"In the 20 states where Hillary Clinton has claimed victory in the 2008 Democratic primary and caucus elections (winning the popular vote), she has led John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily trial heats for the general election over the past two weeks of Gallup Poll Daily tracking by 50% to 43%. In those same states, Barack Obama is about tied with McCain among national registered voters, 45% to 46%.

"In contrast, in the 28 states and the District of Columbia where Obama has won a higher share of the popular vote against Clinton in the 2008 Democratic primaries and caucuses, there is essentially no difference in how Obama and Clinton each fare against McCain. Both Democrats are statistically tied with him for the fall election."

Ooops, Yet Another Obama Adviser Steps into It

by Deb Cupples  | Barack Obama seems surrounded by people with a penchant for making political trouble for him.  In February, economic adviser Austan Goolsbee reportedly told Canadian officials that Obama's actual stance on NAFTA wasn't as negative as his campaign rhetoric.  'Not a good move before the primary in Ohio, whose voters truly dislike NAFTA.

In March, Obama' now-ex-foreign policy adviser Samantha Power told the BBC that Obama wasn't committed to his campaign statements about ending the Iraq war within 16 months after he takes office (if elected).  That was before Ms. Power ever so professionally (and publicly) called Hillary Clinton a "Monster."

In short, due to various advisers' statements, many voters have wondered about Obama's sincerity  and the spirit of his campaign. Yesterday, the American Thinker reported:

Time's Joe Klein Defends Obama & Gets it Wrong

by Deb Cupples |  I just found this at the Daily Howler (via Make Them Accountable):

"Under the ludicrous headline, 'Stop Lying About My Record,' Klein somehow conjured up this:

"JOE KLEIN (5/19/08): 'It seems the only way the neoconservatives are able to attack Barack Obama's foreign policy proposals is to exaggerate and misrepresent them.

"'The evidence? On Friday, I promised to check into whether Obama had ever said that he would negotiate—specifically, by name—with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Indeed, according to the crack Time Magazine research department and the Obama campaign, he never has.

"'He did say that he would negotiate with the Iranian leadership—but, on matters of foreign policy and Iran's nuclear program, the guy in charge is the Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

"'As of today, John McCain was still accusing Obama of wanting to negotiate with Ahmadinejad. Why doesn't the McCain campaign and other assorted Republicans ever accuse Obama of wanting to negotiate with Khamenei? Well, because Khamenei isn't quite the flagrant anti-Semite Ahmadinejad is...and, as we keep hearing, Obama has a Jewish problem.'"

Polls: Hillary Does Better than McCainand Obama in Kentucky (and FL, OH, PA)

by Deb Cupples |   The latest Rasmussen poll of Kentucky voters shows Hillary beating McCain and McCain beating Obama in the general election in that state:

Clinton	51%	....	Obama	32%
McCain	42%		McCain	57%

A few days ago, Rasmussen reported the following polling results regarding Pennsylvania's presidential election in November 2008:.

Clinton	50%	....	Obama	45%
McCain	39%		McCain	43%

Both polls show Hillary doing very well, but the headlines of Rasmussen's reports do not mention Hillary at all.  I suppose we should be grateful that Rasmussen is still including questions about Hillary in surveys (unlike some other polling outfits).

Recent polls from Quinnipiac have more good news for Hillary: she's beating McCain in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania: 

Gallup: Good & Bad News for Hillary and Barack

The latest Gallup poll shows these results, when registered voters were asked whom the would prefer in the November general election:

Clinton........49%...................McCain........47%

McCain.......44%....................Obama.........45%

In other words, Hillary is outdoing Obama against McCain and is outdoing McCain. It's too early to predict what will happen in November.  Still, it's interesting to see that even as many media want to stick a (pitch) fork into Hillary and call her done, many voters seem to prefer her to the other two candidates.

Interestingly enough, recent Quinnipiac polls show Hillary leading in the general election in the key swing states of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania:

Who has Harmed the Democratic Party?

by Deb Cupples |  Children do it often.  When they get caught misbehaving, they tend to point fingers in every direction except toward the mirror.  When adults engage in such behavior, it inspires questions about their rationality and character.

As adults, we can all agree that any negative statement by any Democratic candidate against another Dem candidate during a primary could undermine the party's ultimate efforts to establish unity before a general election.

That said, the DNC (and many media) seem to blame Hillary Clinton's campaign as the one that advanced all the divisiveness.  She certainly has said some negative things about Barack Obama.  I admit it, and the media has been all over it for months, so I need not provide examples here.

Hillary is not the only one whose words (or actions) might have caused party division.  Obama said and implied very negative things about his fellow Democrat, Hillary. Yet, the DNC (and many media) never really called Obama out. 

The most recent example was on Friday, when the Obama campaign bizarrely made an issue of  Hillary's reference to Robert F. Kennedy. Preferring to start with less recent examples, I'll get into the RFK non-issue later.

Rasmussen Poll Says Hillary Doing Best in PA, but Data is Buried in Report

by Deb Cupples |  Today, Rasmussen reports the following polling results regarding Pennsylvania's presidential election in November 2008:.

Clinton	50%	....	Obama	45%
McCain	39%		McCain	43%

Apparently, Hillary is doing far better against John McCain in Pennsylvania than Barack Obama is.  Given that the margin of error is 4%, Obama and McCain are statistically tied. 

Oddly, that's not what Rasmussen's headline indicates.  The relevant part of the headline reads "Pennsylvania: Obama 45% McCain 43%."

Josh Marshall Doesn't Seem to Understand Florida: Let me Explain

by Deb Cupples |   Today, TPM's Josh Marshall or the "person who kidnapped Josh" (phrase from Lambert at Corrente) complains:

"...Then we have a speech like Sen. Clinton's yesterday in Florida in which she compared the controversy over seating the Florida and Michigan delegates to the Florida recount debacle and many of the great voting and civil rights battles of the 20th century....

"What she's doing is not securing her the nomination. Rather, she's gunning up a lot of her supporters to believe that the nomination was stolen from her -- a belief many won't soon abandon...."

For months, in fact, many of us Floridians have drawn parallels between Recount 2000 and the DNC's stripping Florida of 100% of its delegates -- including some of my politically astute, Obama-supporting friends. 

Hillary isn't to blame for that sentiment -- and it certainly didn't result from a speech she made yesterday.

Obama "Quietly" Looking for Running Mate? Me Thinks He Thinks Voters are Stupid

by Deb Cupples |   It appears that Obama campaign strategists think the public and press are manipulable to the point of stupidity.  That's no way to secure votes -- especially from supporters of one's opponent.  The Atlantic's Marc Ambinder wrote:

"Very quietly, Sen. Barack Obama has begun the process that will end in his choosing a running mate, Democrats inside and outside the campaign said.

"Obama has sworn a small group of his senior staff to secrecy. He is determined to start the vice presidential search on his own schedule and has said publicly, and repeatedly, that he will not talk about ticket-mates until the race for the nomination itself concludes."

Obama Wins Oregon Primary; Hillary Gains Ground in Popular Vote

Barack Obama won Oregon's primary yesterday (CNN, 89% reporting):

....................#Votes................%Vote

Obama........333,624..................58%

Clinton........238,237..................42%

Also yesterday, Hillary won the Kentucky primary (65%-35%).  In Oregon so far, Obama has won roughly 100,000 votes more than Hillary.

In Kentucky, Hillary won nearly 250,000 more votes than Obama.  In West Virginia last week, Hillary picked up nearly 145,000 votes more than Obama.

In other words, Hillary has been increasing her popular-vote count in a big way of late.

Hillary Wins Kentucky -- BIG

by Deb Cupples |   Below are the results from Kentucky's primary, held yesterday (from C-SPAN, with 99% of precincts reporting):

.....................#Votes.............%Vote

Clinton........459,145...............65%

Obama........209,771...............30%

Edwards.......14,182.................2%

Uncomm.......18,029.................3%

In Kentucky, Hillary netted nearly 250,000 in the popular-vote count.  Oregon won't even begin counting its votes until 11pm  eastern time (and I'd rather not be up until 3 or 4 a.m.), so I'll cover it tomorrow. The Washington Post has interesting exit-poll data (after the jump).

Keep in mind that polls had Hillary behind Obama in Oregon by double digits. The most recent PPP poll has Obama ahead by 18 points, SurveyUSA has him ahead by 13, and the Portland Tribune has him ahead by 20.  I can't wait to see how close the polls came.

A Pretend "Milestone": More Creative Spin from Obama's Campaign

by Deb Cupples |  Just after Hillary Clinton beat Barack Obama last night in Kentucky's primary (65% - 30%), the Obama campaign sent out an email signed by Obama himself.  The relevant text is this:

"[I]t's clear that tonight we have reached a major milestone on this journey.

"We have won an absolute majority of all the delegates chosen by the people in this Democratic primary process."

Basically, Obama used 10 words to describe what for months has only required 2: "pledged" and "delegates." 

How does winning a majority of pledged delegates qualify as a "major milestone"?  It doesn't, because winning the majority of pledged delegates does not make Obama the nominee.  Period. [Correction below]

Buffet Offered Support to Both Clinton and Obama

by Deb Cupples  |   Billionaire Warren Buffet is backing Barack Obama against McCain -- but not against Hillary Clinton.  Agence France Presse reports:

"Buffett told a press conference here Monday he had offered support to both Obama and Democratic rival Hillary Clinton but that since it appeared Obama would win the party's nomination, 'I will be very happy if he is elected president.'"

Naturally, fiscal, monetary, and trade policies are big issues for Buffet; apparently, he has confidence in the two Democratic candidates but not in John McCain.  Memeorandum has commentary.

Polls: Hillary Gaining Ground in Oregon

by Deb Cupples  |   Polls have been known to be wrong, of course.  Remember the pre-election polls before primaries/caucuses in New Hampshire, California, and Iowa?  That said, I do find it interesting that Barack Obama had a double-digit lead over Hillary Clinton in Oregon's primary (tomorrow).  The Boston Globe reports (via Memeorandum):

"Obama had been leading by double digits in Oregon, where he expects to win on Tuesday, enabling him to declare victory in the pledged delegate race and perhaps sew up the nomination.

"But the latest polls in Oregon show Clinton within striking distance. Obama leads 45 percent to 41 percent with 8 percent undecided and 6 percent refusing a response, according to a Suffolk University survey released this morning. An American Research Group survey puts Obama's lead at 50 percent to 45 percent."

We'll know soon enough which polls were right -- or wrong.

Backlash has Begun: 72% Say Media Should Stop Trying to Anoint Obama

by Deb Cupples  | This from PEW Research Center:

"[T]he public is sending a strong message to journalists and pundits: It is too early to declare, as some already have, that the race is over.

"Fully 72% of the public - including comparable percentages of Democrats, Republicans and independents - say that journalists should not be anointing Obama as the Democratic nominee at this stage in the race. Just 20% say that journalists should be doing this."

Backlash Against NARAL: an Example that the DNC Should Seriously Consider

by Deb Cupples |  Earlier today, I blogged about the backlash that many Democrats predict will come if the DNC continues to insist on disenfranchising Florida's and Michigan's primary voters. Just a few hours later, I came across a good example of a backlash: the one brewing against the National Abortion Rights Action League (NARAL) for jumping into the fray and endorsing Barack Obama on Wednesday.

It's a move that even Obama-supporting NARAL members consider ill-timed and ill-advised, especially given that Hillary Clinton has a long, strong, and impressive record of supporting NARAL's cause and women's rights generally.  Politico reports:

Warning of Backlash if DNC Refuses to Count Florida and Michigan

by Deb Cupples |   Since at least March, rancor has grown among ordinary Democrats who don't appreciate the tactics that certain high-level DNC leaders (e.g., Howard Dean and Donna Brazile) have employed during the nominating process -- tactics soundly evincing that ordinary voters' votes don't matter to DNC "leadership."  We've covered it , as have No Quarter, Taylor Marsh and many other blogs.

Among those odious tactics were the DNC's stripping of 100% of Florida's and Michigan's delegates, though more than 2 million people voted in those states' primaries.  The DNC has a chance to rectify this on May 31, when it will hear appeals from Florida and Michigan. 

Below is a well worded plea to the DNC  -- which also warns of dire consequences for the Democratic Party if the DNC continues to insist on disenfranchising Florida's and Michigan's Democratic voters.  Hats off to the man in the video (via No Quarter), who accurately captures the sentiment of many ordinary Democrats.