SoS Hillary Accuses Pakistani Gov't of Abdicating to Taliban; Taliban Forces Prepare to Retreat

by Damozel | Hillary told a the House Foreign Affairs Committee panel that the creeping advance of the Taliban across Pakistan presents a "mortal threat" to the world security, with extremists being permitted to control territories in northwest Pakistan.  (BBC News) She's not wrong about that or about the weakness of the Pakistani government, which -- as she said -- has been ceding more and more territory to the Taliban.  BBC News reports:

Earlier this month, Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari signed a law implementing Islamic law - or Sharia - in the Swat Valley region as part of a deal to end a two-year Taleban insurgency there...Thousands of people have fled and hundreds of schools have been destroyed as a result of a Taleban-led insurgency.

The Swat Valley is only about 100km (62 miles) from Islamabad, and reports suggest the Taleban are trying to expand the area under their control  (BBC News).

Under pressure from the US and from Pakistani people, Pakistan's rangers, a paramilitary force under the command of the Interior Ministry, moved in to block the Taliban's advance. (The Long War Journal)  The Taliban now seem to be pulling out of an area they have been occupying for the previous week.   

Pakistani government and military officials, facing strong pressure from Washington and increasing domestic criticism of a potential Taliban advance toward the capital, warned that they would take forceful action if the militants refused to stop their armed expansion. (WaPo)

Clinton expressed, in short and plain words, the extent of US concern about the growing Taliban control of areas of Pakistan.

"I think that we can not underscore [enough] the seriousness of the existential threat posed to the state of Pakistan," she said, describing the rebels as a "loosely-confederated group of terrorists and others seeking to overthrow the Pakistani state".(BBC News)

Steve Hynd at Newshoggers seems less impressed than Clinton by "existential threats."

100 Taliban. Five hours travel away from Islamabad on Pakistani roads on a good day, i.e. one where you have a working truck that isn't being bombed and shelled by Pakistan's huge military. Some threat. Want to bet me there's 100 militiamen ready for the rightwing revolution somewhere within 5 hours of D.C.? By some lights, that puts America on the verge of being a hollow state....

The Pakistani military also directly controls over 50% of Pakistan's economy and the civilian government is just a facade to keep US military aid coming. The military has let the Taliban have those bits of Pakistan it isn't interested in running itself, that's all....

[N]one of this helps Obama's atrocious strategy for the region one bit, especially given that the Pakistani military has no intention of decimating a Taliban movement that still provides it useful proxies against its real enemy, India...surging in Afghanistan when they call Pakistan's "imminent" collapse the real threat doesn't make sense. ...

It's far more likely that the Taliban aren't a realistic existential threat to Afghanistan, Pakistan or even America.  (Newshoggers)

But Maha comments:

There is genuine concern that Pakistan — nuclear-armed Pakistan, mind you — will devolve into a territory of warlord-led fiefdoms, sort of like Somalia. The resurgence of the Taliban in Pakistan is not a new thing. This has been unfolding since the end of 2001, when much of al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan were able to escape into Pakistan....

Listen, folks, just because the Bush Administration said the Taliban is dangerous doesn’t mean it isn’t.

True, that -- because, as Maha says:  nuclear armed.

In the meantime, Pakistani citizens who do not love the Taliban seem to be doing their bit to pressure their government.

[T]he BBC's Syed Shoaib Hasan in Islamabad says circumstances suggest the militants are now under pressure and that a national consensus is building among the public and political parties that they must be challenged with force.

Pakistan's government has clearly stated that unless the Taleban lay down their arms, other options will be considered....

Sympathy for the militant movement has been on the decline, our correspondent says, since the airing of footage showing a young girl being flogged as a punishment in Swat.

Although the Taleban denied ordering the punishment, their public standing has plummeted.(BBC News)

The Taliban have agreed to what is, according to the BBC, a "key withdrawal."  The BBC has footage.

The Taleban say they are withdrawing from a Pakistani district where their consolidation of power this week has caused deep concern in the US.

A Taleban spokesman said commander Maulana Fazlullah had issued the order for fighters to pull back from Buner, just 100km (62 miles) from Islamabad.(BBC News)

Is the Pakistani military really stepping up?  Is the Pakistani government really going to get its thumbs out?

Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, the army chief, told a meeting of senior army officials Friday morning that the army possessed both the will and the capability to defeat armed extremists, according to a statement released by the army. Kayani said the military "will not allow the militants to dictate terms to the government or impose their way of life on civil society."

Prime Minister Yusuf Gillani, who until Thursday had played down the threat from the Taliban forces occupying Swat, also told journalists Friday that the government would not allow the militants to set up a parallel state. If the peace deal is violated, Gillani said, "other options" would be considered(WaPo) .

They do seem to be pulling back.  But....the price of peace?

Under the deal, officials agreed to allow strict Islamic law to be imposed in Swat and six surrounding districts, including Buner, in exchange for the Taliban fighters laying down their weapons.(WaPo)

Taylor Marsh is as unhappy as I am about the cost of the push-back.

Between Clinton’s castigation of the Pakistani government, with Adm. Mullen in Pakistan, it seems the Pakistani army might have at least momentarily seen an opening, even if Mr. Zadari seems oblivious living in his “bunkerized luxury.”  . If the withdrawal actually happens it’s a very good sign, but it still comes with the promise of sharia being enforced in the Swat region in exchange for “peace.”.

Acquiescing to the Pakistani Taliban is not the answer.

Memeorandum has more.

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