by Damozel | The Times Online seems to think that Israel is, and indeed we've been hearing threats of impending action since last summer. I find this all too easy to believe, but after what I've heard about its attacks on the Palestinians, I am prepared to believe anything. M.J. Rosenberg at TPM doesn't believe it. "Too utterly insane," he says. Really? I seem to recall quite a lot of talk about the possibility last summer (see related posts below) and the rhetoric hasn't changed.
Here's what Sheera Frankel reports from Jerusalem.
Officials believe that Israel could be required to hit more than a dozen targets, including moving convoys. The sites include Natanz, where thousands of centrifuges produce enriched uranium; Esfahan, where 250 tonnes of gas is stored in tunnels; and Arak, where a heavy water reactor produces plutonium.
The distance from Israel to at least one of the sites is more than 870 miles, a distance that the Israeli force practised covering in a training exercise last year that involved F15 and F16 jets, helicopters and refuelling tankers.
"Is this what we get with Netanyahu?" Alan Colmes asks plaintively. I guess it is.
They're ready and able, they say, but -- interestingly -- would want our "tacit approval," since they'd be flying over airspace where we have "a strong presence." Well, they're not getting mine and I assume Obama won't be giving his.
“We would not make the threat [against Iran] without the force to back it. There has been a recent move, a number of on-the-ground preparations, that indicate Israel's willingness to act,” said another official from Israel's intelligence community.
He added that it was unlikely that Israel would carry out the attack without receiving at least tacit approval from America, which has struck a more reconciliatory tone in dealing with Iran under its new administration. (ToL)
Haaretz doesn't seem to find the report implausible.
Ahmadinejad has announced several times in the past that Iran has the knowledge necessary to enrich uranium ore into fuel pellets, but with the opening of the new facility, the Islamic republic says it now has the capability. (Haaretz)
Haaretz reported a few days ago;
"The Iranian nation has from the beginning been after logic and negotiations, but negotiations based on justice and complete respect for rights and regulations," Ahmadinejad said in a televised speech.
The nuclear fuel manufacturing plant will produce pellets of uranium oxide to fuel the heavy-water research reactor, which is scheduled to be completed in 2009 or 2010.
The process is distinct from uranium enrichment, which produces fuel for a light-water reactor. Highly enriched uranium can be used to build a warhead as well. Iran's enrichment program presents more immediate concerns to the West than the hard-water reactor, because it is far more advanced.
Iran denies any intention to build a nuclear weapon. The U.S. and its allies have expressed concerns Iran could reprocess spent fuel from the heavy-water reactor into plutonium for building a warhead.
The scope of Iran's nuclear advancements seems largely a matter of speculation. SoS Hillary Clinton expressed a certain degree of skepticism about some of Ahamdinejad's assertions.
Today's Haaretz report says:
In the meantime, Israel is getting ready for the largest civil defense drill in its history, though if this April 7 report is correct, Iran wasn't primarily in the minds of its Home Front Command.
Speaking with Haaretz, Col. Hilik Sofer, who is in charge of the Department for Population at the Home Front Command, said that "in wartime there will be insufficient Magen David Adom, rescue and chemical and biological warfare units. Even if we call up the reserves of the Home Front Command, we will have to rely on the population itself."...
The aim of the nationwide drill, Sofer said, "is to transform the population from a passive to an active one. We want the citizens to understand that war can happen tomorrow morning."
The exercise is scheduled to last an entire week and test a series of scenarios that include missile strikes with conventional and non-conventional warheads, fired by Hezbollah, Syria or Hamas. (Haaretz)
At PoliGazette, conservative Michael van der Galien says:
Obama is unwilling to act again Iran, that much is clear. You could even argue that he has not taken any steps to put more pressure on the extremist rulers of the country formerly known as Persia by diplomatic means. Israel is worried, and rightly so, for Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is on record saying he wants to “wipe Israel off the map.” No country in its right mind would ignore such a threat.
No country in its right mind would take Ahmadinejad's word for anything, but anyway, I take his point. Just because someone lies and postures most of the time doesn't guarantee that he doesn't sometimes tell the truth. So Van der Galien further says:
I am pretty sure we don't have any right to "stop Iran" from developing nuclear power, which presents a problem here. As our good friend Charles at Mercury Rising would likely be glad to explain to him, van der Galien seems to be missing a key point here.
Under the Nonproliferation protocols, Iran has a right to develop nuclear energy in whatever manner it sees fit, as long as it allows reasonable inspections to ensure that material is not being diverted into weapons production. It has fully complied with these requirements. It is following the law.....Iran has the right under existing international law (and indeed was exercising it many decades ago under the Shah)....
At one point, the IAEA thought Iran was cheating, because they found traces of highly enriched uranium on the centrifuges. However, further investigation revealed that the uranium was from Pakistani enrichment. Pakistan had sold the centrifuges to Iran. So, no basis to think Iran was cheating. (comment Jul 5 08).
And, Charles added,
Sorry to say, Iran is entirely in the right here. There's no doubt in my mind that they will eventually develop a nuclear weapon. After the recent belligerence of the US and Israel, who could blame them? (comment Jul 5 08)
In other words, the more we study war as the way to keep down threats to ourselves and Israel, the more likely war becomes. Which is why diplomacy, as opposed to preemptive military action, is a good thing. "Go for them before they come for you" is not really good practice if your aim is national security (never mind peace).
At TPM, M.J. Rosenberg was just noting that Obama seems likely to break with Bush policies towards Israel.
The signs all point in one direction. President Obama is breaking with his predecessors' policies on Israel-Palestine.
The latest evidence is his decision to submit legislation that would allow US assistance to the Palestinians even if Fatah and Hamas form a unity government. Under current law, any power sharing agreement would terminate US aid.
This change, if implemented, makes it more likely that a power sharing arrangement will be reached. And that is good news because the two-state solution requires that there be one Palestinian entity, not two. The two-state solution is tricky enough. Three states? Forget about it. (TPM)
RELATED BUCK NAKED POLITICS POSTINGS (JUN -JUL 2008)
Tracking the Course of the Bush-Cheney Juggernaut As It Lurches Toward Iran
Iran's Position Unchanged Despite Offered Incentives Package
Chairman of Joint Chiefs Recommends a Cautious Approach in Iran; Other Nations Try for Diplomatic SolutionsBush Administration's Covert Actions re: Iran
Is Israel Gearing Up for an Attack Against Iran?
RECENT BUCK NAKED POLITICS POSTINGS
The Torture Administration: Exposed; The Operatives: Indemnified & Immunized
DoJ to Release Torture Memos; but Obama Won't Prosecute
The current nutjobs in the Israeli government seem intent on enflaming the middle east. The Israeli government has become a vassal to the far right religious extremist in both the Jewish and Evangelical Christian communities.
The Israeli policy of the last several years has served merely to drive the Arab nations away from peace, and create a hard line fascist state in Israel.
Now, in spite of the disastrous results in both Lebanon, Gaza and the West Bank, the hothead wingnuts in the current Israeli government are going to double-down on failure.
Heaven help us all when AIPAC draws the US into the failed Israeli policy.
Posted by: Continuum | April 18, 2009 at 12:30 PM
Those current "nutjobs" have their backs against the wall as you sit safely at your keyboard thousands of miles away and lob labels. When you are casting out barbs from Jerusalem will believe you have the right to judge the right and wrong of Israels actions and never before. For instance: is it right or wrong for Israelis to take the Iranian leaders at their word that they intend to wipe Israel off the face of the earth? A simple yes or no will do as an answer, by the way. BB
Posted by: Brenda Bowers | April 21, 2009 at 06:56 AM