by Damozel | Cernig has an excellent piece at C&L on the fragility of the much-touted success of the Surge. I think anyone who has been paying attention must know---even I know---that the success has yet to be tested and that there are many, many factors currently in place that justify Gen. Petraeus's very temperate optimism. He told the BBC he didn't know if he would ever use the word "victory." ""This is not the sort of struggle where you take a hill, plant the flag
and go home to a victory parade... it's not war with a simple slogan.""(BBCNews 9-11-08)
While he concedes that the previously "horrific violence" has greatly improved, he says, ""there were "many storm clouds on the horizon which could develop into real problems". Overall he summed up the situation as "still hard but hopeful", saying that progress in Iraq was "a bit more durable" but that the situation there remained fragile."(BBCNews 9-11-08)
General Petraeus said the average number of attacks was down to 25 per day from 180 at the height of the violence in June 2007, and praised the role of Iraqi and American-led coalition forces during his time in command.
He said: “I don’t use words like victory or defeat. In fact, I am a realist, not an optimist or a pessimist. And the reality is that there has been significant progress but there are still serious challenges.”
He said Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia “remains lethal, dangerous and barbaric, albeit in a degree of disarray, on the run and with a very damaged, completely destroyed reputation.” (NYT).
Bush himself doesn't disagree about the success of the Surge: ""The progress in Iraq is still fragile and reversible..."" (BBCNews 9-9-08)
One storm cloud that might threaten the fragile situation is one we've discussed here on several occasions: the tension between the Sunni Awakening groups and the Maliki government. Cernig summarizes this situation as follows:
[T]here’s a growing storm of discontent among members of the Awakening. The US says there are 100,000 Sons of iraq but the Iraqi government only admits to 50,000 - and they only plan to find new jobs for 20% of those. The rest are to be cut off and told that if they continue to carry weapons they are criminals. You can guess how that’s going to go. If even 20% of the Sons of Iraq return to violence, they’ll comprise an insurgency equal in size to the highest US estimates of Al Qaeda in Iraq at its zenith. (C&L)
Cernig discusses some of the other threats, including the tensions between the Kurds and the Iraq Army, and between the Kurds and Turkey. (C&L)
Defense Secretary Robert Gates, now in Iraq, says that "the central question was “how do we preserve the gains that have already been achieved, and expand upon them, even as the numbers of U.S. forces are shrinking?”" (NYT). According to him, reconciliation is the way forward.
The long-term solution is not military, the defense secretary said, calling political reconciliation “absolutely critical to Iraq’s success,” and urging the central government in Baghdad to move forward with provincial elections. (NYT).
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