by Damozel |Ike Update: "Worst Case Scenario Did Not Occur".
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Previously: The projections are grim. Experts are saying that Ike may dwarf Katrina in the devastation it wreaks. At Weather Underground, Dr. Jeff Masters says:
Hurricane Ike is closing in on Texas, and stands poised to become one of the most damaging hurricanes of all time. Despite Ike's rated Category 2 strength, the hurricane is much larger and more powerful than Category 5 Katrina or Category 5 Rita. The storm surge from Ike could rival Katrina's, inundating a 200-mile stretch of coast from Galveston to Cameron, Louisiana with waters over 15 feet high. This massive storm surge is due to the exceptional size of Ike....
Ike continues to grow larger and has intensified slightly since yesterday, and the hurricane's Integrated Kinetic Energy has increased from 134 to 149 Terajoules. This is 30% higher than Katrina's total energy at landfall. All this extra energy has gone into piling up a vast storm surge that will probably be higher than anything in recorded history along the Texas coast. Storm surge heights of 20-25 feet are possible from Galveston northwards to the Louisiana border. (Weather Underground; emphasis added)
And Masters has more:
We must assume Ike will intensify to a Category 3 hurricane by landfall, which would likely do $20-$30 billion in damage. Ike's storm surge is going to be affect a huge area and be tremendously destructive. The latest Hurricane Local Statement from the Galveston National Weather Service office puts things in pretty stark perspective:
All neighborhoods... and possibly entire coastal communities... will be inundated during high tide. Persons not heeding evacuation orders in single family one or two story homes will face certain death. Many residences of average construction directly on the coast will be destroyed. Widespread and devastating personal property damage is likely elsewhere. Vehicles left behind will likely be swept away. Numerous roads will be swamped... some may be washed away by the water. Entire flood prone coastal communities will be cutoff. Water levels may exceed 9 feet for more than a mile inland. Coastal residents in multi-story facilities risk being cutoff. Conditions will be worsened by battering waves. Such waves will exacerbate property damage... with massive destruction of homes... including those of block construction. Damage from beach erosion could take years to repair. (Weather Underground)
And it won't just be the hurricane:
Texas hurricanes have a history of producing strong tornadoes. Hurricane Alica spawned 23 tornadoes when it hit, including one strong F2 tornado. Hurricane Carla of 1961 unleashed 26 tornadoes, including the only violent F4 tornado ever spawned by a hurricane. The tornado hit Galveston, killing between 6 and 12 people. (Weather Underground)
Eric Burger at Science Blog writes:
The biggest question remains how high the surge in Galveston itself will be at high tide in another hour or so. The National Weather Service estimates that storm surge along the island will range from 14 feet on the island's west end to 17 feet on the east end. I expect these to be catastrophic levels for many structures and, unfortunately, people....
The latest wind speed forecasts also suggest that most of Harris County, outside of the county's southeastern quarter, may not see sustained hurricane-force winds as Ike moves inland and up the western edge of Galveston Bay. There will be hurricane-force gusts, of course, and these are already occurring in some areas.
Chambers and Liberty county have a much better chance of seeing sustained hurricane-force winds.
While hurricane-force gusts will be enough wind to knock power out to most of Houston -- the total of those losing power is approaching 75 percent of all metro area customers -- it shouldn't be strong enough to cause widespread, significant damage to number of inland homes.
Don't get me wrong, there will be lots of damage. (SciGuy)
Early this morning, he wrote:
If you live east of San Luis Pass and less than 20 feet above sea level, God help you at this point if you have not evacuated. (SciGuy)
The rest of the country will feel their pain in various ways. But the rest of the country will have some pain of its own:
Houston is the fourth largest city in the United States, home to a sizable portion of the US oil refining capacity, and it has a massive hurricane bearing down on it, pushing ahead of itself one of the largest, most powerful storm surges in history. Refineries are shutting down, trying to keep the damage to a minimum. Houston's protection is Galveston Island, which seems to be Ike's target at this point. And if any place in the United States ought to know about hurricanes and storm surges, it's Galveston. (Peterr, FDL)
Among other consequences, expect these:
The situation is grim for Port Arthur, Texas, on the Louisiana border. The expected storm surge of 15-20 feet will overtop the city's seawall by six feet, resulting in flooding of the city and a number of major oil refineries. Expect a significant tightening of gas supplies in coming months, due to extensive damage to the oil refineries in the Houston and Port Arthur area.. (Weather Underground)
I suspect we'll see both the consequences of offshore drilling and hear more justifications for increasing it.
The Wonk Room weighs in on the reports.
The Wonk Room recently reported on the troubling new studies that show the spate of stronger storms — including Katrina — is tied to global warming caused by our unrestrained burning of fossil fuels. Today, Greenpeace notes that Ike is part of this trend of larger, more destructive storms fueled by hot oceans.
Meanwhile, the rest of us can only sit here and pray, though convinced---as is sometimes the case---that prayer won't do any good. This is so bad.
More at Memeorandum....
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