by Damozel | Russia turned to its fellow members in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
(formed to build relations between China and former Soviet republics)
for backing in its actions against Georgia and specifically in its
recognition of the separatist regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.The member states of the SCO are Russia, China, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and
Kazakhstan. States with "observer" status are India, Iran, Pakistan and Mongolia. (Bloomberg)
Eurasia.Net predicted that Russia would find "succor" in the East. Didn't happen. Condemned by its fellow G8 members (BBC 8-27-08) and looking for support from its fellow SCO members, Medvedev met mainly with shrugs.
Foreign policy is most definitely not my field, but that seemed like sort of a no-brainer to me. How many countries want to be seen supporting separatism and recognition of breakaway states?
[T]he Shanghai organization....took a neutral stance, urging Russia and Georgia to resolve their differences peacefully.
The S.C.O. states express grave concern in connection with the recent tensions around the South Ossetia issue and urge the sides to solve existing problems peacefully, through dialogue, and to make efforts facilitating reconciliation and talks,at the summit meeting's final joint declaration said. (NYT)
This issue is one on which China in particular feels very strongly.
Beijing's foreign policy continues to emphasize the inviolable sovereignty of nation states, and the country often condemns American overseas military actions. On Wednesday, China expressed "concern" over Russia's actions in Georgia, which Russia had argued were essential to preventing Georgian aggression against South Ossetia....
In the tug of war between Russia's desire to secure international backing and China's fear of encouraging any separatist movements, the Chinese position apparently won out. Beijing is concerned not only about Xinjiang but also about an independence movement in Taiwan, which it claims as a renegade province, and the claims for greater autonomy in Tibet.
"Even if it is eager to support Russia in its conflict with the West... and this is not clear...China is not eager to somehow put at risk its own problems with succession and regions,"Mr. Petrov [Nikolay Petrov, an expert in Russian politics with the Carnegie Moscow Center] said. (NYT)
It seems highly unlikely, even to this ignorant layperson, that China would want to appear to encourage secessionism.
``China's reaction to this dispute has been very muted because we're also very aware of the secessionism in Xinjiang, Tibet, and the Central Asian countries also have the same worries,'' said Zhu Feng, a security expert at Peking University's School of International Studies.
The Shanghai organization has condemned an attempt by Taiwan to seek greater international recognition and unrest in Tibet. (Bloomberg)
At Lawyers, Guns, and Money, Robert Farley comments:
[T]erritorial integrity is a value that Russia really shouldn't have expected China to have a sense of humor about. In every international forum worth the name, China has fought for the supremacy of territorial sovereignty over the right of self-determination, and Russia is invoking the latter in defending its actions in South Ossetia.
And there's also this:
China is now far more deeply integrated in the international economy than Russia, and one consequence of that integration is that China has little interest in rocking the boat for its own sake. (Lawyers, Guns, and Money)
As for the former Soviet Republics, they have their own concerns.
[T]he Central Asian states of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan fall within what Moscow considers its sphere of influence, and all seem to accept Russian hegemony to a certain degree, they nevertheless strive to limit Moscowâs reach and preserve their own independence of action.(NYT)
It's true that Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev, a staunch ally of Russia, "said he viewed Russia's actions in Georgia with ``understanding.'' Russia ``either had to just walk past or stop the bloodshed of that long-suffering people,'' he said." (Bloomberg)
And it would seem easy enough to have predicted Iran's response:
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad declined to say whether his country supported Russia's actions in Georgia, telling reporters in Dushanbe that ``countries that do not belong to a region do not interfere with the countries of that region.'' (Bloomberg)
Despite the fact that---except possibly for Belarus (Bloomberg)---no country has leapt to recognize the independence of the separatist regime, Medvedev has chosen to read the SCO's response as "a strong signal" of support for its actions. (NYT) I don't think so.
The U.S. highlighted Russia's isolation. ``I would just say that it wasn't what I would call an endorsement,'' U.S. State Department spokesman Robert Wood said in Washington. ``The fact that you haven't seen countries come forth and recognize these two parts of Georgia's territory is a significant sign.'' (Bloomberg)
It's true that the organization expressed support for Russia's "peacekeeping" efforts in the region. But they had some reservations about recognizing the separatists, affirming "their commitment to âefforts aimed at preserving the unity of a state and its territorial integrity,â the statement said." (NYT)
The Russian Newsroom reports on Medvedev's efforts to use events in Georgia as an argument for enlarging the S.C.O.
China and the other members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) voiced their support on Thursday for Russia's actions in Georgia and South Ossetia following the recent conflict.
However, the Asian countries stopped short of backing Russia's move to recognize the independence of the breakaway province, along with Georgia's other rebel region, Abkhazia....
Medvedev had urged the leaders at the summit in the Tajik capital, Dushanbe, to support Russia's role in Georgia, in order to "send a serious signal to those who are trying to justify the aggression that was committed."
He also criticized the role of Western powers in the conflict.
"It is well known who connived with the Georgian authorities and even goaded them on, in pursuit of their own selfish goals. In these extreme conditions, we stayed calm and continued a responsible and predictable line of policy," he said.
The Russian leader, whose country will now take over the presidency of the SCO from Tajikistan, said that the recent conflict has increased the importance of the bloc as a guarantor of regional security and stability. (Russian Newsroom)
Elsewhere in the world, Russia is engaged in a losing battle to defend its actions in Georgia.
The Russians' strongest argument in defence of its armed intervention is that blame for the outbreak of a shooting war is shared.
Most observers agree it is, and that Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili acted rashly or wrongly in ordering his army to bombard and take the South Ossetian capital Tskhinvali.
He was wrong, too, to speak of Russia "exterminating" his nation. (BBC, Horsley)
But the Russians seem to assume that because Saakashvili may have been wrong, or partly wrong, it follows that their subsequent actions were right, or should be seen as justified. Sorry, but it does not follow.
But in many other ways, Russia's defence of its armed intervention has been found wanting or false.
Russia's official charges of "genocide" by Georgian forces against the South Ossetians were quickly discredited by Human Rights Watch. (BBC, Horsley)
Autocrats always seem to believe that the people under their jurisdiction are so ignorant or so uninterested will accept their version of events without weighing the facts. As BBC's European analyst points out, anyone who does that can see that Russia not only went beyond its asserted "peacekeeping" role in Georgia, but also did its bit to stir up the trouble in South Ossetia to which Saakashvili was responding.
Sweden's normally soft-spoken Foreign Minister Carl Bildt retorted that Russia's resort to that argument echoed that of Hitler in annexing pre-World War Two Czechoslovakia.
Finally, Russia's claim that its motive in Georgia was purely humanitarian was exploded by this week's decision to recognise the independence of the two breakaway regions.
This catalogue of feints and deceptions has hardened international opinion towards Russia to the point where the West is undertaking an overall review of ties with Moscow - something scarcely imaginable only a month ago.
The acute international alarm regarding Russia stems from the offensive part of its concerted campaign to send messages of varying degrees of threat to other countries.(BBC, Horsley)
UK Foreign Secretary David Miliband wants "the EU and Nato to initiate "hard-headed engagement" with Russia in response to its actions in Georgia.
Russia protests that it is not trying to start a new Cold War and that it is doing only what it has the right to do.(BBC 8-27-08) But "French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner called Russia an "international outlaw" and said the real worry was not a new Cold War but a "hot" one, suggesting that another Russian objective might now be Ukraine's mainly Russian-speaking territory of Crimea." (BBC 8-27-08)
For example, the Baltic states and the Ukraine are rightly concerned
that Russia seems to think it has the right to intervene in other states on behalf of Russians living in those states. (BBC, Horsley)
Ukraine's President Victor Yushchenko has said his country is a hostage in a war waged by Russia against countries in the old Soviet bloc....
"When we allow someone to ignore the fundamental right of territorial integrity, we put into doubt the independence or existence of any country, any nation," he said.(BBC 8-27-08)
BBC News lists other other key developments:
- German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the continued presence of Russian forces in Georgia proper was a grave ceasefire violation. She also agreed to send up to 15 military observers to Georgia as part of an OSCE mission
- Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow would support the presence of more international monitors in the buffer zones
- French President Nicolas Sarkozy described Moscow's decision as an unacceptable attempt to change borders, and said any settlement had to be based on international law, dialogue and respect for Georgia's territorial integrity
- (BBC 8-27-08)
Bloomberg has more:
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said the European Union was considering sanctions on Russia; Ukraine appealed to be considered for EU membership; Turkey complained of Russian pressure as it allowed U.S. warships to enter the Black Sea; and Russia made new threats to back out of trade agreements. (Bloomberg)
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