by Deb Cupples | After killing 70 people in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, Hurricane Gustav hit the Cayman Islands last night, with winds of 115 mph. (BBC) That's a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, just as Katrina was when it hit New Orleans three years ago -- almost to the day. (Agence France) Katrina left about 1,800 people dead.
At 11 am today, Gustav was about 185 miles from Cuba. The National Hurricane Center reports:
"Gustav is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days. On this track..., the center of Gustav will pass over western portions of Cuba today and tonight... [and] emerge over the southern Gulf of Mexico early on Sunday...and reach the northern Gulf by Monday morning." (emphasis added)
The strength and direction of Gustav could change over the next two days. As someone who tracked more than a few hurricanes during a nine-year stint in the Florida Keys, I can attest to the fact that hurricanes have wills of their own (figuratively speaking, of course).
On the other hand, Gustav may do exactly what the National Hurricane Center now predicts. We'll know by Tuesday morning.
Already, people are evacuating throughout Gustav's current and potential path. Smart.
When Hurricane Andrew decided to head toward Florida in 1992, I evacuated three days in advance. He didn't do much damage to the Florida Keys, but he wiped out Homestead (near Miami) -- turning it into a wasteland and a target for looters and price-gougers.
The trip back to the Keys on the Turnpike was chilling. I'll never forget that 15-story (or so) hotel off in the distance: one side was intact, but concrete had been torn off the other side, leaving steel beams sticking out and bent like spider legs.
In addition to people and houses and businesses, apparently some offshore oil rigs stand in Gustav's potential path. God knows we don't need another oil spill, so let's hope or pray for the best.
And let's also hope or pray that the Bush Administration and Congress and the State of Louisiana had managed to beef up those levies in New Orleans over the last three years. The Chicago Tribune reports:
"A mandatory evacuation order for this below-sea-level city could come early Sunday morning, Mayor Ray Nagin announced, when "contraflow" provisions will kick in on the region's highways, directing all lanes away from the coast.
"This time, officials said, there will be no 'shelters of last resort' inside the city-meaning there will be no repeat of the hellish post-Katrina scenes at the New Orleans Superdome and Convention Center, where tens of thousands of hurricane victims sweltered for nearly a week awaiting rescue."
Memeorandum has commentary.
Related Buck Naked Politics Posts:
* Katrina Tax Breaks go to Luxury Condos in Alabama?
* New Orleans: Still Suffereing After 2 Years & Billions of Dollars
* FEMA: Incompetence or Corruption?
The people of Louisiana learned a lesson from Hurricane Katrina. It is certainly wiser for people to evacuate the state before hurricane Gustav hits the state. Hurricane Katrina still a very traumatic event for the people of New Orleans. Hopefully the same mistakes will not be repeated. As the Batekes of Gabon say, "Someone who had a wound in the mouth knows that blood is salty."
http://guyblaise.com/
Posted by: Guy Blaise | August 30, 2008 at 10:34 PM
Guy,
Well put!
Posted by: Deb Cupples | August 30, 2008 at 11:48 PM