by Damozel | Yesterday I noted hopeful signs that the Dems will really
take the Senate so that we will have a de facto rather than a merely de
jure 'Democratic Congress.' Two GOP incumbents in Miami are holding on
by a thread, McClatchy reports. This has been what my British husband calls 'a safe seat' for these two for years. At TPM Election Central, Eric Kleefeld says: 'Both brothers have had pretty easy rides to re-election during their time in Congress, but this year might just be different.'
The polling from Bendixen and Associates, a Florida-based firm that specializes in surveying areas with large percentages of Spanish-speakers, finds Lincoln ahead of Democratic candidate Raul Martinez by a 41%-37% margin, within the ±5% margin of error. Mario leads Dem candidate Joe Garcia by 44%-39%, also with a ±5% margin of error. (TPM Election Central)
Maybe:
Reps. Lincoln and Mario Diaz-Balart, Cuban-American brothers with a long Miami political pedigree, are leading their Democratic challengers by only single digits with four months to go to the election. Potentially more troubling for the GOP incumbents, the poll shows neither cracked 50 percent of the vote. That's a far cry from their dominance in previous campaigns.(McClatchy)
To be honest --- and as a Dem supporting Obama ---I have to agree with the spokesman for the Diaz-Balart's who more or less pointed out that a lead 'by only single-digits with four months to go to the election' is, nevertheless, a lead. (McClatchy) (He also noted that the pollster in question is a 'Democratic pollster.')
Still, that support is softening is a good sign that people might be noticing that our Republican administration has managed to get everything wrong. (McClatchy) Maybe a shift's occurring, even if we won't see the effects this round.
One of the Democratic contenders, Joe Garcia (challenging Mario Diaz-Balart) said:
...[T]he poll "confirms the tremendous support we've been seeing on the ground every day. Our campaign is addressing the issues that matter most to the people of South Florida, like fixing our broken economy, fully funding our schools and solving the housing crisis, while my opponent has a six-year record of rubber-stamping the failed policies of the Bush Administration and a lot of empty rhetoric on Fidel Castro."(McClatchy)
On the other hand, the brothers' pollster, David Hill, speaking of Lincoln Diaz-Balart, 'shows the congressman with a 12-point lead over Martinez and a "double-digit advantage over his opponent in virtually every significant segment of the electorate."'(McClatchy)
Whatever you think about poll results --- which in my case is generally not much --- it's going to be uphill work for Democratic contenders. Still though...it looks as though the perception of Republicans is changing.
A third Republican, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, whom I saw and didn't much like on Real Time with Bill Maher, is still 27 percentage points ahead of the other contender.
It was interesting to read the Wikipedia entries (I know, I know; okay?) on the candidates. Mario's says:
Unlike the other two Cuban-Americans who represent Miami in Congress — Ileana Ros-Lehtinen and his older brother — Mario Diaz-Balart has a strongly conservative voting record. He is one of two voting Hispanic members of Congress — the other being Trent Franks of Arizona — who is a member of the conservative Republican Study Committee. His district, however, is known to be the most socially conservative district of the five that divide Miami-Dade County (largely due to its section of heavily Republican Collier County).
Swing State Project says:
While two weeks is an awfully long time frame for a congressional poll, the numbers are quite good for Garcia and Martinez, who are putting the GOP's traditional grip on South Florida's Cuban community to the test. Less great are the numbers for Taddeo, but undoubtedly she lags in name recognition compared to Martinez (a longtime former mayor of Hialeah) and Garcia (the former director of the Cuban-American National Foundation and Miami-Dade Democratic Chair).
This could be a transformative year in South Florida.
SSP currently rates these races as Likely Republican, but our next round of ratings will come next week and some of these races may be in need of an upgrade. (emphasis added)
Anyway, we'll see.
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