by Damozel | More than 100 F-16 and F-15 fighters participated in an exercise over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece, according to this report in The International Herald Tribune. Israeli officials just said that Israel regularly carries out military exercises.(IHT) But 'a senior Pentagon official', speaking on condition of anonymity, said that the exercise served more than one purpose, and that preparing for a strike against Iran was one of them.
One Israeli goal, the Pentagon official said, was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and all other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclear installations and its long-range conventional missiles.
A second, the official said, was to send a clear message to the United States and other countries that Israel was prepared to act militarily if diplomatic efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium continued to falter.
They wanted us to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot of signaling going on at different levels."(IHT)
Other American officials said that they didn't think an attack was imminent. (IHT) Phew.
Except....Israel's now deputy prime minister and formerly its defense minister fairly recently said that if Iran continues its nuclear weapons program, Israel will attack and that such an attack would be 'unavoidable.' (Reuters) The interview appeared on June 6, 'the day after the unpublicized exercise ended.' (IHT)
But Israeli defense ministers and political commentators 'rounded on [him]..., accusing him of exploiting war jitters to advance his personal ambitions.' (Reuters)
While the White House suggested Mofaz was giving voice to the Jewish state's fear of the Islamic republic, officials in Israel's Defence Ministry pointed to a power-struggle roiling centrist Kadima as Olmert tries to beat off a bribery scandal.
"Turning one of the most strategic security issues into a political game, using it for the internal purposes of a would-be campaign in Kadima, is something that must not be done," Deputy Defence Minister Matan Vilnai told Israel Radio.
The state-owned broadcaster quoted another senior defense official as saying Mofaz's interview "did not reflect policy" and "risked making it even harder for Israel to persuade more countries to step up their sanctions against Iran". (Reuters)
Iran, though, is certainly taking the potential threat seriously.(IHT) '"They are clearly nervous about this and have their air defense on guard," a Bush administration official said of the Iranians.'(IHT) The Israelis have attacked suspected nuclear facilities in the Mideast twice before: in 1981, in Iraq; and this September, in Syria.
And perhaps the Israelis have cause to be nervous.
Two sets of advance Russian-made radar systems were recently delivered to Iran. The radar will enhance Iran's ability to detect planes flying at low altitude.
Mike McConnell, the director of national intelligence, said in February that Iran was close to acquiring Russian-produced SA-20 surface-to-air missiles. American military officials said that the deployment of such systems would hamper Israel's attack planning, putting pressure on Israel to act before the missiles are fielded....
In late May, the International Atomic Energy Agency reported that Iran's suspected work on nuclear matters was a "matter of serious concern" and that the Iranians owed the agency "substantial explanations."(IHT)
Will Bush initiate or join in such an action? The administration's recent, if so far unsuccessful, negotiations with Iraq over the status of forces agreement certainly indicates that they are thinking along those lines. And there have been recent rumors that the American military is also gearing up to strike Iran.
In short, the situation is dangerous, possibly escalating, and not unlikely to lead --- unless the international community pressures them to cease operations, as Bush has requested --- to military action in the perhaps not very distant future. Does anyone believe that's going to work?
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Senior Military Strategists Warn NATO: Pre-emptive Nuclear Strike Must Remain an Option [1-22-2008]
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