NC and IN Primary Results: Which Polls Were Wrong?

by Deb Cupples |  Once again, it's time to play Which Polls Were Wrong?  Breakdowns of actual election results and pre-election polling data for Indiana's and North Carolina's primaries are below the jump:

I.  Indiana

1. Actual Results: (99% reporting, percentage votes rounded off by CNN)

........................#Votes........%Votes

Clinton............644,590...........51%

Obama.............630,395..........49%

...........................Clinton by < 2%

2. Pre-Primary Polls Summary (not counting undecideds):

.......SUSA............Zogby-2 ......Zogby-1........ARG.............Suffolk

Clinton +12%.....Obama +2%........Tie.........Clinton +8%.....Clinton +6%

3. Pre-Primary Polls Breakdown + Undecideds

...............SUSA.......Zogby-2.....ARG.........Zogby-1.......Suffolk
..............(May 2-4)......(May 3-4).......(May 2-4)...(Apr 30 - May 1)....(May 3-4)

Clinton.......54%..............42%.............53%............42%................49%

Obama.......42%...............44%...........45%..............42%................43%

Und..............1%..................8%...............2%.................9%..................6%
.

Interestingly enough (given how wrong Zogby's pre-primary polls were before Iowa, New Hampshire, and California), Zogby came closest to being right in terms of the margin in two pre-election polls re: Indiana's primary -- though, Zogby named the wrong winner.

Equally interesting is that SurveyUSA, while it named the right winner, was the farthest off in terms of the margin.  That's interesting, because SurveyUSA has had a good record of coming close re: margins during this primary season.

II.  North Carolina

1. Actual Results: (100% reporting, percentage votes rounded off by CNN)

........................#Votes........%Votes

Obama............875,683..........56%

Clinton............652,824..........42%

.........................Obama by > 14%

2. Pre-Primary Polls Summary (not counting undecideds):

....SUSA..........Zogby-2 ...........Zogby-1...........ARG........'......PPP.

Obama +5%.....Obama +8%.....Obama +16%....Obama +8%......Obama +10%

3. Pre-Primary Polls Breakdown + Undecideds

.............SUSA..........Zogby-2......ARG........Zogby-1.......PPP
............(May 2-4).........(May 3-4).......(May 2-4)....(Apr 30-May1)....(May3-4)

Clinton.......45%................40%............42%.............34%................43%

Obama.......50%................48%...........50%.............50%..............53%

Und...............2%..................8%...............4%................8%.................7%

All of the polls listed above named the right winner in North Carolina: Obama.  Again, interestingly enough, Zogby came closest -- not in its poll that was nearest (time-wise) to the election but in the poll before that one.

Comments

[Adam]

No love for fivethirtyeight? He projected Hillary winning Indiana by 18k votes and 2%. He was about 2% high in his NC prediction, but that may be because he didn't include the undecided/Gravel vote.

Still, those results blow away the pollsters, and he did it just by looking at demographics and ignoring the polls. This does not exactly say good things about the value of polls.

[Concerned]

North Carolina: The Actual Results.
There is a typo. The name Clinton and Obama
should be interchanged.

[D. Cupples]

Concerned,

Thanks for pointing that out. I'm so embarrassed! I had copied/pasted my Indiana results and changed numbers -- AND meant to change names.

Sorry about that. I've just corrected it.