Hillary Wins Kentucky -- BIG

by Deb Cupples |   Below are the results from Kentucky's primary, held yesterday (from C-SPAN, with 99% of precincts reporting):

.....................#Votes.............%Vote

Clinton........459,145...............65%

Obama........209,771...............30%

Edwards.......14,182.................2%

Uncomm.......18,029.................3%

In Kentucky, Hillary netted nearly 250,000 in the popular-vote count.  Oregon won't even begin counting its votes until 11pm  eastern time (and I'd rather not be up until 3 or 4 a.m.), so I'll cover it tomorrow. The Washington Post has interesting exit-poll data (after the jump).

Keep in mind that polls had Hillary behind Obama in Oregon by double digits. The most recent PPP poll has Obama ahead by 18 points, SurveyUSA has him ahead by 13, and the Portland Tribune has him ahead by 20.  I can't wait to see how close the polls came.

Here's a taste of the exit-poll data from Chris Cillizza"

"* Among Kentucky voters living in rural areas or small cities -- nearly six in 10 voters -- Clinton took 75 percent to 19 percent.

"* Among non-college educated whites in Kentucky (66 percent of the electorate), Clinton won by 44 points -- 69 percent to 25 percent.

"* Among whites with a family income less than $50,000, Clinton received 75 percent of the vote while Obama took just 22 percent."  ( Washington Post)

Susan at No Quarter has even more about exit polls in Kentucky.  Memeorandum has commentary.

Comments

[Adam]

Things seem to be stabilizing around 16 points, which is right around what those polls projected. Of course the ones you mentioned a few posts back had Hillary much closer, but those were outliers. The polling numbers were pretty accurate for both races today.

Actually, if you look at SUSA's numbers for KY, they haven't really moved since mid-February. The dynamics of the race in Kentucky were set a while ago.

[D. Cupples]

Adam,

I don't know why you brought up KY's polls since Feb: I was talking about Oregon's.

I hadn't realized that the recent OR polls were outliers. I should have checked before doing that older post.

[Adam]

I'm just commenting generally on polling dynamics in the race. They've been pretty static. It would not have been that hard in early February to correctly predict the result of EVERY RACE since Super Tuesday. The only tough ones may have been Indiana and the pacific island races, all of which turned out razor thin.

It's worth noting that Obama did just fine among the "white working class" in Oregon. He doesn't have a "white working class" problem, he has a "Appalachian and deep south white working class" problem.