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« If Obama's Inevitable, Why Can't He Sew Up the Nomination? (& Why That's the Wrong Question) | Main | Hillary Wins Pennsylvania by Double Digits -- Despite Forces Working Against Her »

April 23, 2008



"Obama would be certain to lose Florida and it’s hard to imagine him winning any of the states above, regardless of how much the so-called “progressives” wish it."

This statement is pretty much unsupportable, which is sort of a big deal, since your ENTIRE argument hinges on it.

There are significant demographic differences between Florida and Colorado/Iowa/Nevada/New Mexico. Obama has polled below McCain consistently in Florida, but above him consistently in those four, as well as New Hampshire, which Kerry also lost.

Take Colorado for instance (a finer state, I do not know). Obama was +9% and +3% against McCain in the most recent polls done by reasonably reliable sources (Rasmussen and SUSA respectively). Hillary was -14% and -6% in the same polls. Projections based purely on demographics of their supporters compared to state demographics put Obama at +4% and Hillary at -10%.

Pennsylvania is a state where Clinton does better. Nobody is arguing otherwise, least of all the Obama people. PA will be the most critical swing state for Obama. But that's just because he will already have safer leads in New Mexico, Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado.


Or take Iowa, another state you list as a sure Hillary winner and a sure Obama loser.

Here's the last 7 Iowa polls, all after Super Tuesday, mostly Rasmussen and SUSA:

Omama +7
Omama +4
Omama +6
Omama +17
Omama +9
Omama +3
Omama +10

... and the same ones, now Hillary vs. McCain:

Hillary -6
Hillary -15
Hillary -4
Hillary -9
Hillary -5
Hillary -10
Hillary -9

Again, this is over a spread of two months. Every survey done shows Obama winning and Hillary losing. And yet, you state with confidence that the November results would be the opposite.

You don't like going by polls? Fine. Then explain to me why two states with high levels of education, with high percentages of young voters, and states that Obama won in the primary, are so obviously slanted toward Hillary in the general election. I'd appreciate some basic regression analysis of the demographics to bolster your argument, too.


Slight correction: Kerry won New Hampshire in 2004. I meant to say, "which GORE also lost".

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