As everyone is saying, it's looking as if what Hillary needs tomorrow is a miracle--- unfortunately. And when I say 'unfortunately,' I mean unfortunately for the future of the US, not just for her supporters. But exactly how bad is it looking, according to the always-reliable press? Let's take a look at Bloomberg's latest, which has all but written Clinton off:
To overtake Barack Obama in the nationwide popular vote, Hillary Clinton needs a bigger win in tomorrow's Pennsylvania primary than she has had in any major contest so far. And that's just for starters.
After more than 40 Democratic primaries and caucuses, Obama, the Illinois senator, leads Clinton by more than 800,000 votes. Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him. (Bloomberg)
There are just two problems with this argument, but they're not going to go away: Florida and Michigan.
Big Tent Democrat at Talk Left writes:
What...Bloomberg...failed to do was discuss the issues of Florida and Michigan. As the RCP popular vote counter demonstrates, the 800,000 vote lead that Bloomberg assumes excludes the Florida and Michigan votes. It has been clear for some time that the Clinton popular vote argument includes counting Florida (Clinton won by 300,000 votes there) at the least, and Michigan as well. (Talk Left)
Big Tent Democrat is wrong to this extent: the article does discuss Florida and Michigan.
To shrink Obama's 800,000 popular-vote margin, the Clinton campaign argues for the inclusion of votes cast in Michigan and Florida. Those two states lost their right to send delegates to the convention by scheduling their contests earlier in the year than party rules allowed....
Florida voters ``expressed their views,'' Clinton told the Newspaper Association of America in Washington on April 15. ``They have had their vote certified by the Florida secretary of state; it's part of the popular vote. (Bloomberg)
Thanks to the DNC, of course, I might as well not have bothered. But the thing is, I did. And so did a huge number of Floridians.
There's almost no chance that party officials will give credence to those results. ``No one is going to buy the argument that you have to count Michigan and Florida,'' says Allan Lichtman, a professor of political history at American University in Washington. ``Those were not contested primaries.''
Instead, Clinton's slim prospects may rest on persuading enough of the 795 superdelegates that she has the better chance of defeating McCain. The superdelegates ``first and foremost vote for the candidate they think is ready to be president and win in November,'' says Doug Hattaway, a Clinton campaign adviser. (Bloomberg)
Well, we'll see. Perhaps she'll tank. Perhaps it is even more likely than not. And if so, I have a feeling that many of her supporters will show you the meaning of 'bitter.' Not me, though --- I don't want McCain to win. I'll support Obama against McCain, secretly knowing that I'm likely, sooner or later, to have the consolation of saying, "Told you so." It's cold comfort but not no comfort.
In the meantime, Hillary supporters, get out there and vote.
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