By D. Cupples | Yesterday, I listed results from 4 polls regarding California's primary: depending on which poll you believed, Hillary Clinton was as much as 9 points ahead of Barack Obama or 4 points behind in California. Similarly, John McCain was 9 points ahead or 3 points behind Mitt Romney.
Today, TPM points out two more conflicting polls of "likely" California voters, one of which will be proven wrong:
SurveyUSA Zogby
Clinton 52% 36%
Obama 42% 49%
Below, I've listed a few recent nationwide polls: they, too, conflict -- with respect to Democratic candidates, anyway.
Nationwide: Democratic Candidates
CNN Pew Cook Gallup Avg of 5 Polls*
Clinton 46% 46% 37% 47% 45%
Obama 49% 38% 43% 43% 43%
* CNN averaged five national polls: Gallup, Pew, ABC, CBS and CNN/Opinion Research Corp.
Nationwide: Republican Candidates
CNN Pew Cook Gallup Avg of 5 Polls*
McCain 44% 42% 39% 45% 45%
Romney 29% 22% 24% 25% 24%
Huckabee 18% 20% 18% 17% -
Paul 6% 5% 6% 4% -
* CNN averaged five national polls: Gallup, Pew, ABC, CBS and CNN/Opinion Research Corp.
For the Republicans, the red numbers form a pattern that's flat as a South Florida road. For the Dems, the pattern is like a sine wave or roller-coaster track.
Apparently, different pollsters have been surveying very different sets of people. Keep in mind that the people taking pollsters' surveys have both the time and inclination to answer strangers' questions on the phone -- meaning that the opinions of people who screen out such calls (or hang up) aren't represented in the polling data.
After the New Hampshire primary embarrassment, pollster John Zogby told Jon Stewart that to get 1,000 people to participate in phone surveys, pollsters usually have to call 5,000-6,000 people (see video). In other words, people who refuse to participate in surveys are part of a large majority.
This calls into question whether the opinions of the willing but small minority actually reflect those of millions of voters.
The upshot: I wouldn't bet hard-earned money based on polls -- and I wouldn't let polls or the pundits who cite them inspire pessimism (or optimism) to the degree that I would skip voting because it seemed either futile or needless. If you haven't voted yet, please do.
Memeorandum has links to all sorts of Super Tuesday coverage.
Related BN-Politics Posts:
* It's not Just new Hampshire: Some Polls were Wrong about Iowa
* Primary 2008: Polls Don't Seem to Mean Much
* MSNBC : Media Gunning for Hillary, Worshiping Obama?
* Election Coverage: Beware of Cool but Empty Sound bites
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