Presidential Primary Polls

by  D. Cupples | Given that pre-election polls haven't always been right (e.g., New Hampshire and California), I take them with a grain of salt -- or sugar, depending on my mood.  For whatever they're worth, below are some recent polling numbers re: the Democratic presidential primaries in Ohio and Texas (followed by info re: dates of surveys and number of participants).

Ohio

.....   ...Washington Post ..... SurveyUSA......Rasmussen  ....Decision Analyst*

Clinton...............50%....................52%...................48%..................46%
Obama................43%.....................43%....................40%..................54%
Und/Other............7%.......................5%....................12%..................  --

The poll by Decision Analyst lists only a 90% level of confidence, which seems low because 95% level of confidence is the standard among most public pollsters.  I included this polling data only because it differs so much from that of the other polls. 

 

Texas

............Washington Post.... SurveyUSA....Rasmussen ...Decision Analyst*

Clinton..........48%.....................50%...............47%.....................43%
Obama...........47%......................45%...............44%......................57%
Und/Other.......5%.......................5%..................9%......................-

The poll by Decision Analyst lists only a 90% level of confidence, which seems low because 95% level of confidence is the standard among most public pollsters.  I included this polling data only because it differs so much from that of the other polls.

Below are the dates and numbers of people surveyed for the polls listed above.

Dates and Number of Participants

........................................................Date........................Number

Washington Post OH................Feb. 16-20.....................611

Washington Post TX................Feb. 16-20.....................603

Survey USA OH........................Feb.  16-18*.................733

SurveyUSA TX..........................Feb. 16-18* .................660

Rasmussen OH...........................Feb. 21..........................902

Rasmussen TX............................Feb 20..........................549

Decision Analyist OH................Feb. 21-22..................735 

Decision Analyist TX................Feb 20-21..................678 

* The dates are a bit confusing; there may be a typo.

Incidentally, I've never come across Decision Anlayst: if you have insights on that particular pollster, please share them with me in the comment section.

Update:

Dyre Portents states:

"Burnt Orange Report found that the poll in question is based is solely based American Consumer Opinion's Texas panelists which pretty much invalidates the poll."

I don't even know what American Consumer Opinion is, but it might be worth looking into.  Memeorandum has other bloggers' reactions: Burnt Orange Report, American Street and THE LIBERAL JOURNAL

Comments

[JSmith]

Burnt Orange Report has actually endorsed Obama and has a somewhat pro Obama bias, although they do seem to be reasonably objective.

In an earlier post they were predicting that even if Hillary won the popular vote in Texas with a 5% margin, Obama would still win more delegates.

[JSmith]

Pollster.com doesn't even include the Decision Analyst poll in its summary of Texas.

The is no way that the Decision Analyst poll could be right. Even with the Obama campaign carpet bombing the Texas radio air waves with adds, I don't see how he could have jumped up that much in such a short period of time.

[Buck Naked Politics]

JSmith, I've never heard of Data Analyst. Have you?

[Buck Naked Politics]

Sorry, I haven't heard of Decision Analyst.

[JSmith]

Never heard of Decision Analyst here either.

Their results don't make any sense and I have never heard of them. I will assume that their numbers are irrelevant until I see something along those lines from someone more credible.

I would be skeptical about any poll showing Obama with any decent margin ahead in Texas right now. It looks like it is almost tied in Texas, with Hillary a bit ahead. Although, the Obama campaign is running TONS of adds, at least on the radio in Houston. I hear an Obama add at least once or twice a day. Same add every time. I have not yet heard a single Hillary add. But…., they are still mostly tied in Texas with Hillary a little bit ahead is my best guess.

I totally don't buy them putting Obama ahead in Ohio. Especially not ahead in Ohio by 8 points when all of the other polls show him behind by 7 or more.

Unfortunately for Hillary, the Texas margin, excluding the fluke Decision Analyst poll, may be close enough to put Obama ahead in delegates in that crazy primacacus thing though.

From what I gather, if it is close, we may not know who won the most Texas delegates for at least a few days, if not more, after the election. The system in Texas is quite crazy. I gave up trying to figure the thing out, but it does look bad for Hillary in terms of delegates.

[D. Cupples]

JSmith,

That's what people are saying (looks bad for Hillary). Myself, I think it's all rather uncertain at this point. I don't see why the media doesn't just wait until after March 4 and discuss what actually will have happened.

But who am I?