Posted by Damozel | According to a declassified National Intelligence Estimate, Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Specifically, "A declassified summary of the latest National Intelligence Estimate
found with "high confidence" that the Islamic republic stopped an
effort to develop nuclear weapons in the fall of 2003." (CNN via Memeorandum) Continuing in good news/bad news vein, it goes on to warn that if Iran wishes to produce a nuclear weapon it will eventually have that capability---though not till the Bush Administration is well and truly but a memory. ""[T]he earliest possible date Iran would be technically capable of
producing enough highly enriched uranium for a weapon is late 2009, but
that this is very unlikely," the report says. A more likely time frame
for that production is between 2010 and 2015.""(CNN)
Of course this has caused the White House to claim that the report justifies its actions and set both sides of the Iran argument each jeering that its predictions and inferences have been proved true.
Matthew Yglesias summarizes better than I can my first reaction to this news:
With their secret enrichment activities exposed, the Iranian regime was reconsidering the utility of continuing such efforts in the face of international awareness and disapproval of them. The Bush administration then decided to squander this opportunity and focus on saber-rattling and dreams of regime change. But the thing about pressure is that you've got to be willing to take yes for an answer instead of just blundering around.
Meanwhile, how outrageous is it that the best twelve months of alarmism from Bush & Cheney have come in the context of an environment where they've long had access to the intelligence community's assessment? Answer: Very outrageous. (2003)
Think Progress speculates that the president has misled the public "in order to bang the war drums against Iran."
As ThinkProgress has documented, Bush administration officials — despite knowing of the NIE — have been ratcheting up their rhetoric on Iran in the past couple of months... Reporters repeatedly pressed [National Security Adviser Stephen] Hadley on the specific date when the White House learned about the NIE’s findings. Yet incredibly, he refused to give a “precise answer,” instead stating that it was within the “last few months.”...Sometime in the “last few months,” Bush learned that Iran is “less determined to develop nuclear weapons.” Yet as late as October, Bush was still claiming that Iran “wants to build a nuclear weapon.” What did Bush know and when did he know it? (Hadley: Bush Learned of NIE's Findings 'In the Last Few Months,' But Continued to Ratchet Up Rhetoric; emphasis added)
Joe Klein at Swampland:
Kevin Drum speculates that it may have been pressure from Congressional Democrats that got this released...and that may be true. But it also may be that the intelligence community was waiting for the definitive information that made this a "high" degree of certainty estimate rather than a "moderate" degree estimate.
And it is not impossible that the intelligence community has concluded that it might well be dealing with a Democratic President come 2009. (More on Iran)
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LINKED
U.S. report: Iran stopped nuclear weapons work in 2003 (CNN)
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