by D. Cupples | It's hard to believe that, say, 1,000 people's answers to survey questions truly reflect the answers that un-surveyed millions would give. Increasing those doubts is that different pollsters can come up with different numbers.
Confusion is intensified by the way that some media outlets report on polling data. To illustrate, I've listed below a few poll results and headlines.
The Zogby/CSPAN/Reuters poll of people in Iowa puts Hillary Clinton at 31%, Barack Obama at 27%, and John Edwards at 24%. It shows Mike Huckabee at 29% and Mitt Romney at 28%. This report is titled: "Clinton Leads Dems, GOP is Deadlocked." Fair enough.
An MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll gives us a different picture of what's on Iowans' minds, putting Romney ahead of Huckabee by 27%-23%. It also puts Edwards at 24%, Clinton at 23%, and Obama at 22%. The report notes that the differences are within the 5% margin of error: i.e., the results might actually be different.
Despite the error margin, one MSNBC report was titled: "First Thoughts: Huck Down in Iowa." This is unfortunate for those people who get their information by browsing headlines.
A different MSNBC report seems to be reporting on the same poll, only it's more sensibly titled, "Polls Show Iowa Caucuses Too Close to Call."
So, which poll are we to believe? Is Clinton ahead of the other Dems by more than the error margin? Is she between Edwards and Obama but within the error margin? And whom do Iowans really prefer: Romney or Huckabee? Or are they tied?
There's a sure-fire way to learn how Iowa Caucus goers really feel about candidates: simply wait until after they vote on January 3 -- just four days from now. [Naturally, this statement is based on the premise that Iowa will not have voting-machine problems.]
For information about the Iowa Caucus, click here. For other bloggers' commentary, see Memeorandum. For examples of why I'm skeptical about polling data and reports, see the posts linked below.
Related BN-Politics Posts:
* Something's Amiss at Gallup: Approval Ratings 7 Mid-East Peace
* Why Democrats Beat Republicans in Gallup Poll
* Polling Data Inadequately Reported
* CNN Poll: Bad News for Dems, No News for Republicans?
* New Poll: Record Low Approval of Bush & More
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