by D. Cupples | The Associated Press reported that 2007 was the U.S. Military's "deadliest year" in Iraq: as of Sunday, 899 U.S. troops have died -- the highest number since 2003. The next highest was in 2004, when 850 died. This year, U.S. troop deaths peaked in May, at 126.
It was also a deadly year for Iraqi civilians, with 18,610 killed in 2007, up from 13,813 in 2006. This came amid reports that some analysts believe our war effort has been successful: that violence in Iraq declined in the second half of 2007. The AP reports:
"Iraqi civilian deaths also peaked in May with 2,155 killed. That fell to 718 in November and 710 in December....
"Civilian deaths are compiled by the AP from hospital, police and military officials, as well as accounts from reporters and photographers. Insurgent deaths were not included. Other counts differ and some have given higher civilian death tolls.
"Those numbers paint an increasingly optimistic picture, but James Carafano, a security expert with the Heritage Foundation think-tank in Washington, D.C., warned dangers lurk.
"'The number of people who have the power to turns things around appears to be dwindling,' he said regarding extremists. 'But there are still people in Iraq that could string together a week of really bad days.'
"While that might not mean a return to the bloodiest moments of the Iraq war, Carafano said it could seriously rattle the Iraqi government as it tries to bring about some form of political reconciliation in 2008, a key to long-term security.
"'People have to be really careful about over-promising that this is an irreversible trend - I think it is a soft trend,' he said of the declining violence." (AP via NY Times)
Calafano makes a good point about not “over-promising” anything, especially given that just three months ago, intelligence analysts questioned military statistics on Iraq violence due partly to data cherry picking:
"The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal.... 'If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian,' [an] official said. 'If it went through the front, it's criminal.'" (Washington Post)
Sunday's AP article states: "since the influx of some 30,000 U.S. troops that began in June, the lessening violence has meant that new problems have emerged." didn't the "surge" (i.e., the influx of troops) begin in January? (CNN)
Regarding security in Iraq, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) released a report in September stating that the Iraqi government had failed to meet all but two of nine security goals set by the U.S. Congress -- despite four-plus years of U.S. aid and occupation.
Some analysts partly credit the purported drop in violence to "Awakening Councils" -- roughly 70,000 Sunnis who used to fight against the U.S. but are now funded and armed by the U.S. to fight against al Qaeda.
Less than two weeks ago, military spokespeople expressed skepticism about whether "Awakening Councils" would remain loyal to the U.S. (BN-Politics) In other words, we're funding and arming people who have another change of heart and go back to fighting against us. If even ten-percent (or 7,000) "Awakening Council" members start using U.S. money and weapons against us, it could be really bad for our nation's interests.
Not everyone is pessimistic. Yesterday, for example, Gateway Pundit ran a post titled " US Tracks Lowest Monthly Fatalities Since War Began," which seems to espouse a half-full view on U.S. progress in Iraq.
Myself, I'm still plagued by confusion over how the war is going -- but hoping for the best.
Related BN-Politics Posts:
* Iraq: Violence Down, Despite Attacks & Rights Violations?
* "Awakening Groups" in Iraq: a Strategy Doomed to Fail?
* More Confusing Statements about Iraq
* Juan Coles' Top-20 Myths of '07
* Defense Secretary Says Military Can't Protect U.S. Interests
* Iran: is Administration Telling Truth or Trying to Save Face?
* $1 Billion More in Missing Military Hardware
* Pattern: Wasted Tax Dollars in Mid-East & at Home
* Congress Probes Cost of Private Contractors
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