Posted by D. Cupples | After reading Peter Baker's "analysis" in today's Washington Post, I wondered: in which world is Mr. Baker living?
Baker asserts that President Bush has had major recent successes -- including undefined improvements regarding the Iraq war -- yet, Baker seems puzzled by the public's continuing disapproval of Bush. Below are a few of Baker's paragraphs, each followed by possible reasons why the vast majority of Americans still disapprove of (and distrust) their president.
Paragraph 1: "The war in Iraq seems to have taken a turn for the better and the opposition at home has failed in all efforts to impose its own strategy. North Korea is dismantling its nuclear program. The budget deficit is falling. A new attorney general has been confirmed despite objections from the left." (Washington Post-1)
The war seems to be going better? Or is it that Administration officials are merely saying that it's going better? (See, e.g., Gen. Joseph Fil and military public-relations officer Gregory Smith.) Statistics about violence in Iraq are debatable -- as the Washington Post, itself, pointed out in September:
"The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. 'If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian,' the official said. 'If it went through the front, it's criminal. Depending on which numbers you pick,' he said, 'you get a different outcome.'" (Washington Post-2)
About this year's "budget deficit": it may be falling, but our national debt (the total amount we owe) is more than $9 trillion, up from $5.7 trillion when President Bush took office. The public knows that our national debt increased by nearly 40% under this president.
About the new Attorney General: we don't know if Michael Mukasey will improve the Justice Department, which is severely troubled due to the last Attorney General (Alberto Gonzales) that President Bush managed to get confirmed. Gonzales is under investigation for misconduct, some of which may be criminal. Americans are nervous about the fallout, given this year's probe into Justice Department politicization.
Paragraph 2: "After more than two years of being buffeted by one political disaster after another, President Bush and his strategists think they may finally be getting back at least a bit of their footing. While still facing enormous challenges, from the crisis in Pakistan to the backlash over children's health care, they hope Bush has arrested his downward spiral and established a better foundation for the remainder of his time in office. (Washington Post-1)
The phrase "they hope" does not indicate that Bush's "downward spiral" actually ceased, only that his strategists hope it has. That aside, Mr. Baker goes on to say this:
Paragraph 3: "In many ways, the shifting political fortunes may owe as much to the absence of bad news as to any particular good news. No one lately has been indicted, botched a hurricane relief effort or shot someone in a hunting accident. Instead, pictures from Iraq show people returning to the streets as often as they show a new suicide bombing. And Bush has bolstered morale inside the West Wing and rallied his Republican base through a strategy of confrontation with the Democratic Congress, built on the expansive use of his veto pen. (Washington Post-1)
Sometime between writing paragraphs 2 and 3, Mr. Baker chose to blindly accept that Bush's "political fortunes" have actually shifted. Baker gives no explanation, though he is correct about the absence of recent indictments. It's a sad day when we view a presidency as successful simply because no one has been recently charged with crimes. Incidentally, this may change, given the ongoing Gonzales investigation. And keep an eye on Howard Krongard: the State Department official who may have given false testimony to the House Oversight Committee just last week.
About the botching of hurricane relief: actually, FEMA is under fire for continuing to botch hurricane relief (for two years running). Finding evidence of fraud and bid-rigging, the GAO plans to refer some cases to the Justice Department for criminal prosecution. Mr. Baker's own newspaper reported this last week.
About the President's vetoes: many Americans (not just the so-called "left") are upset with congressional Democrats because they have failed to reverse President Bush's policies. Recent polls reflect America's displeasure with Congress, but as Mr. Baker's own paper reported last month, Americans are even more disapproving of congressional Republicans (who side with President Bush) than they are with Democrats (who try to oppose Bush but don't have a large enough majority in Congress to succeed).
Memeorandum has a good blogger roundup: Captain's Quarters, Firedoglake, The Newshoggers, Wake up America, NewsBusters.org, The Carpetbagger Report, Prairie Weather, Macsmind, AMERICAblog, State of the Day, The Strata-Sphere and The Heretik
Related BN-Politics Posts:
* Polling Data Inadequately Reported
* CNN Poll: Bad News for Dems, No News for Republicans?
* Democrats So-Called "Control" of Congress
* New Poll: Record Low Approval of Bush & More
* Why Democrats Beat Republicans in Gallup Poll
* Approval Ratings: What do the Numbers Mean?
* Hoping for More Careful Polling Analysis
* Poll: Republicans Bombed re: War, Healthcare, Economy, Terrorism....
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