By D. Cupples | Three weeks ago, General Joseph Fil said that violence in Baghdad had declined 70-80%, implying that violence in Iraq has declined (NY times). Around the same time, a car bomb in rural Iraq killed two children, and a mass-grave was discovered with 17 bodies, 4 of which were headless.
Army public-relations officer Gregory Smith said that violence in Iraq had declined by more than 50% (Washington Post-1). Around the same time, a roadside bomb killed 20 children and adults. The Associated Press reported that 26 people were killed today and dozens were injured by bombs in Iraq:
"A bomb exploded in a pet market in central Baghdad on Friday, killing at least 13 people and wounding dozens, Iraqi police said, shattering the festive atmosphere as people strolled past the animal stalls.
"Hours later, a suicide car bomber struck a police checkpoint in the northern city of Mosul, killing three policemen and 10 civilians, police Brig. Gen. Mohammed al-Wakaa said. The 1:30 p.m. explosion also left 10 cars charred.
"The attacks were among the deadliest in recent weeks, underscoring warnings by senior American commanders that extremists still pose a threat to Iraq's fragile security despite a downturn in violence....
"The [pet] market has regained popularity after the lifting of a four-hour Friday driving ban to protect prayer services from car bombings. The Iraqi government lifted the weekly ban in September, citing the improving security situation....
"Amir Aziz, a 22-year-old pigeon vendor who was wounded by shrapnel, said he was in the middle of a transaction when the blast occurred.
"'Today, the market was very crowded and we were happy about that,' he said. 'The Iraqi security officials have deceived us by their statements that the situation is 80 percent better. People believed them and began to go out thinking that it would be safe. I think that the situation will become worse again.'"
This is not like the "She's my daughter, she's my sister," line from the movie Chinatown, which accurately indicated that a female character had shared with her sick father parentage of her sister.
Regarding violence in Iraq, you can't have it both ways. Either the war effort is succeeding (i.e., violence is down and security is up), or it's not. Bush Administration officials say that violence in Iraq is down and the surge has worked. On the other hand, they keep warning us that security is "fragile," meaning that we must keep fighting, spilling blood, and spending tax dollars.
Making comprehension even harder for us taxpayers, officials aren't clear about their war-violence statistics. In September, intelligence analysts and the GAO sharply questioned the military's numbers, partly because of data cherry picking:
"The intelligence community has its own problems with military calculations. Intelligence analysts computing aggregate levels of violence against civilians for the NIE puzzled over how the military designated attacks as combat, sectarian or criminal, according to one senior intelligence official in Washington. 'If a bullet went through the back of the head, it's sectarian,' the official said. 'If it went through the front, it's criminal.'" (Washington Post-2)
It would be nice if Administration officials (whose salaries we pay) would finally do a thorough and objective analysis of what's going on in Iraq -- and share their methodology with us ordinary folk. If they have trouble doing that, maybe Henry Waxman's Oversight Committee can help them out.
Memeorandum has a blogger roundup.
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Other BN-Politics Posts:
* Is Militia Group out of Baghdad?
* Administration Officials Zigzag over the War
* Former Army General Supports Troop Withdrawal
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