Posted by Cockney Robin | 
So far, the baddies seem to be having it all their own way. Is there any hope?
Troops have reclaimed the streets. The Independent on Sunday: "Burma's Buddhist monks have all but vanished....In the end, a week was all it took. In that time Burma has gone from ethereal dreams of freedom to a vicious new reality... Yesterday in Rangoon, despite the troops on every corner, clusters of insanely brave protesters continued to dash out and taunt the military before running away again. But the men and women at the heart of this revolt, Burma's Buddhist monks and nuns, had vanished. Columns oarmy trucks packed with soldiers patrolled the streets...." (The Independent on Sunday)
Burma's "silent symbol of hope" (briefly) emerged on Saturday for the first time in four years. For reasons that I don't understand, Burma's Aung San Suu Kyi was permitted by the government to emerge from house arrest to pray with the monks. "Just catching a glimpse of Ms Suu Kyi at her gates last Saturday would have been a huge boost to people in the country, according to Myint Swe of the BBC's Burmese Service. "She is considered an icon of democracy in Burma and this is the first time they have seen her for four years. It shows she is alive and well," he said." (BBC News)
Ms Su Kyi is the daughter of Burmese independence hero General Aung San. In 1990, she was leader of the National League for Democracy Party which won by a landslide in an election that the country's military junta never recognized. (BBC News) She's spent 12 of the last 18 years under house arrest. .(USA Today) You can read biographies of Aung San Suu Kyi, winner of the 1991 Nobel peace prize here and here.
According to the BBC News, UN envoy Ibrahim Gambari has met Ms Su Kyi in Rangoon (BBC News). "A UN statement said they spent over an hour in talks, at a government guest house near the villa where she is kept under house arrest....A statement said he "looks forward to meeting" Gen Than Shwe, who heads the military council that runs the government. (BBC News). I'm quite sure he was looking forward to it. Read a biography of Than Shwe here and an account of the wedding which so outraged the Burmese people here. Sadly, Gen Than Shwe wasn't quite so keen on meeting him, and ultimately gave him the raspberry (Telegraph).
There's a surprise.
This isn't often true, but the situation in Burma really does appear to be a case of the white hats vs. the black hats. No one anywhere has anything good to say about the Burmese junta, who---much as predicted--- have proved brutally efficient at suppressing the protests, having already had plenty of practice. For example:
A woman told the BBC people got angry after seeing monks being thrown into a truck.
"One young man got up and shouted - they shot him. His wife came running after him - they slapped her. They took the body away and drove away," she said. (BBC News)
One protester said:
"You ring up your friends and family in every part of the country, and ask, 'Is anyone missing? Is everybody at home?' We know the government is arresting hundreds of people, and we have heard that terrible things have been happening to them."
The information blackout, however, merely fuelled the rumours - and the simmering anger - all the more.
The most sinister report circulating in the streetside tea shops spoke of how up to 200 people had been killed in custody since Friday, with their bodies allegedly incinerated at a secret location, two hours’ drive north of Rangoon.
"We heard that one of the victims turned out to be still alive when they started burning them, and began screaming, but the soldiers just continued regardless, because they had their orders," said Mr Kyaw.
He conceded that he had no way of verifying the claims, but given Burma’s past record in dealing with pro-democracy uprisings - an estimated 3,000 people were killed during the last one, in 1988 - he was not the only one to take them seriously.(Telegraph)
At least no one is defending the actions of the generals.
The crackdown has triggered unprecedented criticism of Burma's generals from almost every corner of the world — even some from China, the country's chief trading partner, which urged the ruling junta to "exercise restraint and use peaceful means to restore its stability as soon as possible.".(USA Today)
On the other hand, some of the countries who need to be key players in stopping the madness seem unwilling to act.
But China, India and Russia do not seem prepared to go beyond words in dealing with the junta, ruling out sanctions as they jostle for a chance to get at Burma's bountiful and largely untapped natural resources, especially its oil and gas.(USA Today)
Once again, you see, it's all about the oil.
In any event, the government admits that 10 people are dead, but persons who know Burma reckon that the total is much higher.
A video shot Sunday by a dissident group, Democratic Voice of Burma, showed a monk, covered in bruises, floating face down in a Rangoon river. It was not clear how long the body had been in the river....
People suspected of leading or organizing the rallies continue to be arrested, the Asian diplomat said, estimating the total number could be as high as 1,000, including several prominent members of the NLD. They joined an estimated 1,100 other political detainees who have languished in jails since before the current turmoil began Aug. 19 with protests against fuel price increases.
With the main prison overcrowded, people are now being detained in university buildings and educational institutes, he said.(USA Today)
At this point, and contrary to Gordon Brown's assertion last week, the age of impunity clearly is not over. Columnist Joan Smith is wearily cognisant of the failure of Brown's "stirring words" to live up to their promise.
"The whole world is now watching Burma," Gordon Brown declared. "The age of impunity in neglecting and overriding human rights is over," he insisted....
The result was as follows: Russia and China vetoed a Security Council resolution on Burma that would have imposed global sanctions. The Australian foreign minister, Alexander Downer, rejected calls for tougher sanctions. The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, merely urged French companies not to make any new investments in Burma. The ASEAN nations issued a call for an end to the violence. The Indian government signed a $150m deal to explore Burma's offshore gas supplies. And a member of the junta continued to receive medical treatment in a luxurious clinic in Singapore.
This stopped somewhat short of Brown's promise that the world would not stand by and let the junta do as it wants. Nor did it bear out the Prime Minister's claim – a hostage to fortune if ever there was one – that "the age of impunity" for human rights abusers is at an end....(USA Today)
W, "of all people," comes in for his meed of grudging praise.
It was left to George Bush, of all people, to match words and deeds; the American President, who is reviled at home and abroad, added new conditions to what is already one of the toughest sanctions regimes in the world...(USA Today)
And than Smith says what we all of us know really.
.[T]he British Government could...put real pressure on Burma's key ally, China, by threatening to boycott the 2008 Olympic Games in Beijing...hurting British trade and British athletes who have trained for years for the Beijing games. But that is what happens when rhetoric ceases to be empty, and politicians are forced to acknowledge the existence of painful moral choices. Humanitarian intervention is difficult, expensive and morally right, despite its bad press in recent years. And the shocking scenes from Burma over the past week have shown that there are occasions when threats and promises are no longer enough (The Independent on Sunday)
U Myint Swe, who represents the Democratic Party for a New Society in Burma in the UK, agrees.
But what is this universally reviled junta thinking it's doing? What on earth are the generals saying to themselves?
[T]he story has seeped out via hurried conversations in Rangoon and Mandalay, passed down the line to opposition groups in exile in Bangkok and on the Thai border. And what it has described is a sclerotic military regime that, while still brutal and controlling, has been struggling to impose the power it has for so long enjoyed.
It tells for the first time of cracks in the military command, of officers questioning the 'morality' of their orders and the self-interest of the generals in charge. 'There are differences in the rank and file of the army for the first time,' said one exiled trade union activist last week. They are focused, too, on tensions within an army and bureaucracy that has long shared the financial fruits of power with the junta's generals and who, after four decades, have begun to feel as excluded as the vast majority of Burma's people....
[T]here are more intriguing claims emerging that appear to contradict the narrative of the democracy movement being snuffed out without any gain in the last few days. Among them is the claim in Irrawaddy news magazine that the bubbling dissent within the armed forces has led to a serious falling out between the head of the army, Vice Senior General Maung Aye, and Than Shwe over the response to the demonstrations....Than Shwe, secluded in his new capital, made a series of potentially disastrous miscalculations, beginning with the decision to increase the price of fuel by 500 per cent, leading to the first demonstration on 19 August. By the junta's own standards, it seemed slow and confused about how to respond to the fuel protests and then to the mass revulsion that followed the beating of two monks by the security forces....
When it did use violence last week, to close the huge monasteries in Rangoon that had become the focus of the protests, arresting and beating hundreds of monks and looting property, it was in a way certain to alienate many who had not marched but stood on the sidelines in this devoutly Buddhist country (Guardian).
Than Shwe has miscalculated in other respects as well, according to this article. Is this seeming suppression of rebellion the beginning of the end for his regime? Let us pray.
Burma's Ruling Junta vs. the People
The Internet: a weapon in the Burmese rebels' armoury
"It's All About the Price of Oil."
LINKS!
- Burma's Silent Symbol of Hope (BBC News)Burma locks down cities, envoy meets Suu Kyi (USA Today)
- UN Envoy Snubbed by Junta Leader in Burma (Telegraph)
- UN envoy sees top Burma dissident (BBC News)
- Joan Smith: Burma Lies Bleeding (The Independent on Sunday)
- U Myint Swe: If we're really concerned, we should boycott the Olympics (The Independent on Sunday)
- Burma's fight for freedom: Troops reclaim the streets as monks pray for a miracle (The Independent on Sunday)
- How Junta Stemmed a Saffron Tide (Guardian)
BACKGROUND
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