posted by Damozel | Hmmm.
The GOP race remains wide open, with many Republican voters disgruntled with their choices and support for all the leading candidates remaining relatively soft and shallow. That foreshadows five months of intensive campaigning before Iowa's caucuses in January (Washington Post).
In the Iowa straw poll, Romney won it all, as expected (Salon) and got the most applause, "(RCP) Romney promised to strengthen things: the military, family, the economy. Worthy! He argued for change in DC without being specific as to what sort, noted that 911 hasn't been repeated, added yet another witty remark at the expense of John Edwards' hair to the ever-growing number, and brought his family (including sons of military age!) onto the stage (RCP). And the crowd adored him! (RCP)
According to WaPo this might--or might not given that Giuliani didn't participate---indicate an advantage of Romney's early stage campaign strategy over Giuliani's (Washington Post), even with Giulinai not an actual contender. Presumably "America's Mayor" doesn't need any stinkin' straw poll.. Neither do McCain and Thompson. It was therefore a battle of the second Republicans (and Romney) (Salon).
Rather taking the bloom off Romney's victory, WaPo notes:
Romney's victory came against a relatively weak field that did not include Giuliani, Sen. John McCain of Arizona or former senator Fred D. Thompson of Tennessee, and after he heavily outspent those who did compete. Still, the result, with Romney easily outpacing his rivals with 32 percent of the vote, helps elevate him from relative obscurity six months ago to the top tier of the GOP field -- despite his relatively low standing in national polls .(Washington Post; links in original)
Tim Grieve, further chipping away the gilt, describes the straw poll procedure as follows:
To get a vote in the Iowa straw poll, a Iowa resident has to first get to Ames, then get a hold of a $35 ticket, and then hand that ticket to a poll worker. It is not really a democratic process. It's more of a contest of campaign organization. Many of the Republican campaigns spent thousands and thousands of dollars to hire buses, buy tickets and cajole their supporters to truck to Ames in the ridiculous heat. As I have written previously, the Republican straw poll is at its core a bus-laden bribe festival.
...Romney was always a lock for first. He has spent millions of dollars in Iowa on campaign organization and radio and television ads. He had more than 100 buses ferrying voters to the poll, and dozens of paid workers recruiting voters. (War Room)
As noted, Romney's victory was no surprise to anyone (e.g., Yepsen; Salon) It's Mike Huckabee---who took second place---that everyone is talking about. With Giuliani and McCain not in the picture, the straw poll has been viewed as a critical testing ground for the second tier candidates. "Mitt Romney will almost certainly win Saturday's straw poll, but Huckabee, Tancredo and Brownback are locked in a bare-knuckle battle for runner-up," noted Salon.
And the fight to prevail over the other non-frontrunners has been fierce. Michael Scherer: "[T]he game in Iowa these days...has more in common with a Bronx street ball tournament than a refereed NBA matchup." (Salon)
But Huckabee worked the homespun eloquence to good advantage. """The straw poll is not about electing a straw man,"" Huckabee told the crowd. (RCP) . Nice one! Iowa voters, Huckabee said, "are buying the cereal, and not just the box.."" (RCP) Iowa voters love a good cereal metaphor!
Reid Wilson of Real Clear Politics thinks Huckabee did the Republican-themes thing "better than anyone." (RCP) "[Huckabee's] speaking style resonates, thanks to his career as a Baptist minister, his analogies are more memorable than any other," he enthuses. (RCP). "He says, for example, that the Fair Tax is so simple that even a 7 year old running a lemonade stand could use it."(RCP) Um, okay, I guess that's memorable. Fair tax, 7 year old, lemonade stand! Yep, memorable! Huckabee concluded by saying, "As the song says, "I used to think maybe you loved me, now I know that it's true." (RCP) Bless his heart!
But I don't hold out much hope for Huckabee if "Walking on Sunshine" is really his campaign song; fans of The Office (UK version)---and there are many, many, many of us---won't hear that song without picturing a smirking, self-satisfied David Brent striding out in the midst of his glowering staff at the party with which Series One ended. It's bad mojo is what I'm saying.
At NRO, Byron York writes:
When Mike Huckabee left Hilton Coliseum on the campus of Iowa State University in the twilight Saturday, a group of his supporters began chanting “First tier! First tier! First tier!” It wasn’t quite “We’re number one!” but it was a huge improvement — and a huge relief — for the former Arkansas governor, who feared that a bad showing might put him out of the GOP presidential race. Spared extinction by a strong second-place finish to winner Mitt Romney, Huckabee was thinking about tomorrow. “We’re going to New Hampshire!” he said to another supporter. Through it all, Huckabee spoke as if he had just won the Iowa caucuses, instead of placing in the straw poll, but no one could begrudge him his happiness.(NRO)
At Salon, Tim Grieve writes: "By any measure, this is a huge win for Huckabee, and a confirmation of his grassroots support in Iowa. He still has a long way to go, and no one knows what will happen when Fred Thompson jumps in the race, but this silver medal could finally bring some real money into his tiny campaign war chest."(War Room)
Anyway, the battle of the Godly Men "throwing their elbows" has provided observers with an entertaining spectacle as well as much matter for philosophizing.
As Michael Scherer notes at Salon, Brownback has attacked Romney and Tancredo for being "insufficiently pro-life." They also have used the name of Bob Vander Plaats in their scripts, presumably hoping to benefit from an association with the popular Iowa politician, without mentioning that he's chairman of the Iowa Huckabee campaign (Salon). [Brownback's spokesman told Salon that they weren't exactly asking for support in Vander Plaats' name; they just happened to mention it or something, in the process of targeting his supporters. No, I don't know.] At a town hall meeting he expressed concern over Romney's changes in position on issues like abortion, guns, and taxes (Salon). Wait, aren't godly people such as Brownback supposed to be happy when the ungodly see the light?
According to Scherer, Tom Tancredo has been calling all the others "amnesty politicians: in radio ads because the others "have not ruled out supporting a path to citizenship for the nation's illegal immigrants." Ah, the charity of godly men on the campaign trail. Tancredo said, "They can say anything that they need to say, because they focus-grouped it. And they don't have any qualms about it." (Salon ) Yeah, like he isn't.
Huckabee has tried to refrain from negativity, according to Scherer, though his campaign hasn't always succeeded (Salon ) . ""I believe the best way to win a campaign is to be able to hit the three-point shots from out on the perimeter, not by going up under the goal and elbowing somebody or kneecapping them,"" he said (Salon). Who doesn't love a minister who can bring the sports metaphors? Of course, there was, it seems, a little matter of Huckabee's "booster," minister Tim Rude, sending out an email that questioned Brownback's faith.
I know Senator Brownback converted to Roman Catholicism in 2002," Rude wrote. "Frankly, as a recovering Catholic myself, that is all I need to know about his discernment when compared to the Governor's." Huckabee later condemned the anti-Catholic message in the e-mail, and Rude apologized. At about the same time, a person who claimed to be a "volunteer in Iowa for the Huckabee campaign" used a Gmail account to send messages to the media with opposition research on Tancredo. Eric Woolson, Huckabee's spokesman in Iowa, insisted the campaign had no knowledge of these e-mails. "I am disappointed that anybody would be doing that, and Governor Huckabee would be as well," Woolson said (Salon).
Which really doesn't sound like he authorized it. So, okay, I---a moderate Democrat---don't begrudge him this victory. If Romney or Giuliani wins, he might---as an ordained Baptist minister and for different reasons in each case---be very helpful in the second chair. And hey, it's still a long, long way to the decision.
So anyway, what does it all mean? In the Des Moines Register, David Yepsen said:
The results tell us several things:
- It doesn't mean much to win a fight when the other prize fighters don't get in the ring. Romney won, but Rudy Giuliani, John McCain and Fred Thompson were no-shows in the competition.
- It does mean something to lose a fight like that. Tommy Thompson's sixth-place showing is likely to knock him from the race. He said he had to finish first or second in order to continue.
- Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas finished second and third. Those finishes should give their campaigns a boost. Historically, the eventual GOP nominee comes from the ranks of the top three finishers in the straw poll.
Those numbers are also a sign Huckabee is doing the better job of rallying GOP social conservatives. The two were locked in a stiff competition for those votes on Saturday.
-Republicans seem lethargic about their choices. The low numbers in the balloting also reflect some dissatisfaction among rank-and-file Republicans with their choices in the presidential race. Why go to Ames on a hot day if you're cool toward the candidates? A recent ABC/Washington Post poll of likely GOP caucusgoers showed only 19 percent were enthusiastic about their options.
- Republicans may be in a more general funk, too. One leading Republican strategist said privately here Saturday that "in 1999, Democrats were suffering from Clinton fatigue; now, we're suffering from Bush fatigue." (Yepsen)
"Bush fatigue." Good one.
Tom Bevan at Real Clear Politics pointed out the caveats to Romney's victory:
There are caveats to Romney's win, of course: he threw millions of dollars at the event and competed against a weakened field that did not include Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, or John McCain. Still, at the end of the day Mitt Romney entered Ames with the most to lose - always a dangerous spot for politician to be in - and he exits the event having not lost a thing. Romney's win yesterday solidifies his standing as the front runner in Iowa heading into the final five and half month stretch (Bevan).
Giuliani's campaign, by the way, evidently isn't that bothered about Iowa. "Giuliani, who is at odds with GOP conservatives on abortion and gay rights, skipped the Iowa test run as part of a blueprint for victory that is less dependent upon winning the first two voting states. Giuliani strategists see a flock of big states holding their contests in late January and on the first Tuesday in February as the former New York mayor's best chance to secure the nomination."(Washington Post; links in original)
Bevan reckon that Iowa is---or should be---the end of the road for Tommy Thompson and Duncan Hunter. Aw. Of all the Republicans, I liked Tommy Thompson best. But
[T]he big loser is Tommy Thompson, whose sixth place finish should put the final nail in the coffin of his presidential ambitions this year. Despite his distinguished record as Wisconsin's chief executive and his reputation as an excellent retail politician, Thompson ran a lackluster campaign in which he often came off - at least on the national scene - as a bit of a buffoon. The other casualty of Ames is Congressman Duncan Hunter, who really has no reason or justification to continue after winning just 174 votes (1.2%) yesterday. (Bevan)
Aw, I liked Tommy Thompson. He was my favorite Republican contender, actually. Was he just not ruthless enough to compete with the God squad? As for Hunter, I could never take him seriously as a candidate or...or take him seriously, knowing that he thinks Ann Coulter is "closely approaching the level of being a great American."(2008 Central.Net:)
Anyway. Congratulations [provisional and qualified] to Romney and Huckabee!
LINKED, QUOTED, OR CITED
- Real Clear Politics: Reid Wilson, Iowa Dispatch: Speeches Galore (RCP)
- Real Clear Politics: Iowa Dispatch: Speeches Galore, Part Two (RCP)
- Real Clear Politics: Tom Bevan, The Ames Aftermath: Lots of Excitement, Little Change (Bevan)
- Washington Post: Dan Balz and Michael D. Shear, Romney Wins Iowa's GOP Poll (Washington Post)
- National Review Online: Byron York, They Like Mike (NRO)
- Des Moines Register: David Yepsen, Republicans Seem Lethargic About Choices (Yepsen)
- Salon: Michael Scherer, In Iowa, the Republicans Fight for Second---and Survival (Salon)
- Salon: Tim Grieve (War Room)
- 2008 Central.Net: Guru, Duncan Hunter On Ann Coulter: “She’s Closely Approaching That Level Of Being A Great American”
Hey, I want to let you know I posted the results from my 13 Movie Q's. It's up at http://anyapples.blogspot.com/
Posted by: Frigga | August 12, 2007 at 10:54 PM