A new Washington Post/ABC poll indicates that 55% of survey participants trust Congressional Democrats to fix the Iraq war problem, while only 32% trust President Bush to do it. Why? According to the poll, 80% of Americans see Bush's stance on Iraq as too rigid: this includes a majority of Republicans, as well as Democrats and Independents.
Damozel's mother (aka The Southern Lady) -- who voted for Bush twice and venerates his father-- now perceives the younger Bush as a "stubborn jack ass." (Genteel belles of her age use such words excruciatingly sparingly, if at all).
Another interesting tidbit: "Even among those Americans who said they had served or had a close personal friend or relative who served in Iraq, just 38 percent approve of Bush's handling of the war" (WaPo).
I don't put much faith in isolated polls. Even with error-margin calculations (which are based on heavy assumptions), how can we know whether the opinions of 1,500 people truly reflect those of tens-of millions of people?
What might indicate something (trends, perhaps) is tracking changes in answers to survey questions over time. Compare some of President Bush's job-approval numbers over the last six years (below):
July 21, 2007 33% approved 65% disapproved
October 29, 2005 39% approved 58% disapproved
March 13, 2005 50% approved 48% disapproved
March 23, 2003 68% approved 27% disapproved
October 9, 2001 92% approved 6% disapproved
* Based on ABC/Washington Post polls
Not surprisingly, Bush's highest rating ever according to the ABC/WaPo poll was October 9, 2001, a month after 9/11 and a few days before the well-timed bombing of Afghanistan that gave Osama bin Laden ample time to evacuate. Terrified of another attack, we Americans found comfort in the bombing, though 15 of the 19 September 11th hijackers were from Saudi Arabia (not Afghanistan).
From there, Bush's numbers fairly steadily declined to a post-9/11 low of 59% in January 2003. In February 2003, while Administration officials started convincing us Americans that Iraq was connected to 9/11 and that Sadaam Hussein had massively destructive weapons, Bush's ratings went to the mid-and-high 60s. In March 2003 (the month we invaded Iraq) his rating was in the high 60s and went into the 70s in April.
[Remember: President Bush, himself, later told God and everyone that there was no connection between Iraq and 9/11, but not until after we invaded Iraq.]
Bush's ratings have gone down (with slight jumps here and there) ever since he declared a hard-to-believe "Mission Accomplished" in May 2003. His numbers have not gone back into the 60s since.
March 13, 2005 was the last time that at least half of the survey participants approved of Bush. October 29, 2005 was a month after Hurricane Katrina and Bush's first time dipping into the 30s.
Given Bush's controversial assent to the White House, his first approval rating after taking office (February 2001) were lukewarm: 55% approved, 23% disapproved and 22% were unsure (WaPo). As discussed above, most of his spikes occurred at times when war and related fears were on the public's mind.
It seems likely that the only way for President Bush's numbers to re-climb is if the nation is once again terror-stricken. This leaves me wondering, How will the Administration manage to get us back to that state?
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