New Roadmaps Out of Iraq.

posted by Damozel | The current situation in Iraq reminds me of a line from a certain novel by Kingsley Amis:  "It's, like, a cat can get his claws stuck into you, you can't get them out and neither can he."   Meanwhile (except of course for the Bush Administration, everyone)---including now perhaps even the Iraqi government---seems to be wishing for a way for the US and the Iraqi government to detach with the minimum amount of damage to either side.

Following the assessment of his government's failure to meet Congressional benchmarks---and  even perhaps with a certain degree of resentment (?)---Prime Minister Maliki announced at a press conference that coalition troops can leave whenever they wish, instead of waiting as the Bush Administration wishes to do until security and stability are achieved. (Washington Post) "The government is serious about increasing the numbers of troops, training them, rehabilitating them and buying weapons so that they can be more capable of holding the security file the moment the multinational forces decide to reduce their numbers or to withdraw from Iraq,"  he said. (Washington Post) He did acknowledge that Iraqi forces need more training and more weapons. (Washington Post) 

He did point out (in so many words) that it's one thing to set benchmarks for a government in the midst of a war and another thing for the government to get them implemented:  "We are not talking about a government in a stable political environment but one in the shadow of huge challenges....So when we talk about the presence of some negative points in the political process, that's fairly  natural. (Washington Post)

In its initial benchmark report, The Bush Administration---which I suppose can't be too happy about Maliki's announcement---also pointed out that progress in Iraq has to be looked at in context.

It will take time...for improved conditions locally to translate into broader political accommodations at the national level; what is important is the overall trajectory, which, under our present strategy, has begun to stabilize, compared to the deteriorating trajectory seen over the course of 2006. Thus, the assessments in this report should be viewed in a larger context.  (IBAR/WSJ AT 3)

What the Administration would like, of course, is more time to continue its military action in Iraq.  "While all of those conditions have not yet been met, and the new strategy is still in its early stages, there are some encouraging signs that should, over time, point the way to a more normalized and sustainable level of U.S. engagement in Iraq, with a decreasing number of U.S. combat forces increasingly focused on a core set of missions, such as those set out by the bipartisan Iraq Study Group ," it brightly suggests. (IBAR/WSJ AT 3)

It seems increasingly unlikely that Congress or the voters are going to accept as a long-term goal "a more normalized and sustainable level of U.S. engagement in Iraq."  Senator Warner, the ranking Republican on the Armed Services Committee and unimpressed with the performance of the Iraqi government, said ""I am disappointed that, after great sacrifice by U.S. and Iraqi troops since the announcement of the surge in January, the Iraqi government has not met critical political benchmarks in that period...That government is simply not providing leadership worthy of the considerable sacrifice of our forces, and this has to change immediately."(Washington Post)

Meanwhile, it seems that the Iraqi government has some complaints of its own.  One of Miliki's close advisors, Hassan al-Suneid, reportedly "bristled over the American pressure."  "The situation looks as if it is an experiment in an American laboratory (judging) whether we succeed or fail," he told the AP.(Washington Post)  "also had more specific complaints about the actions of the US military, stating that it was "committing human rights violations and embarrassing the Iraqi government." (Washington Post)  He also criticized Petraeus's attempts to implement his "purely American vision":  ""There are disagreements that the strategy that Petraeus is following might succeed in confronting al-Qaida in the early period but it will leave Iraq an armed nation, an armed society and militias."(Washington Post)

His comments, according to The Washington Post, were "a rare show of frustration toward the Americans from within al-Maliki's inner circle as the prime minister struggles to overcome deep divisions between Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish members of his coalition and enact the U.S.-drawn list of benchmarks." (Washington Post)

And so now what?  Within Congress and within the Administration, the battle continues.  House Democrats have successfully  passed legislation setting a deadline for troop withdrawals.  But even if this bill passes in the Senate, it is certain to be vetoed.

Meanwhile, GOP Senators, led by Richard Lugar and John Warner---formerly chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee and chairman of the Armed Services Committee, respectively---.have proposed an amendment to the defense authorization bill which would require the Administration to present a realignment plan to Congress by October 16.(Washington Post)  Most of it is nonbinding; it would force Bush "to begin drawing up plans to redeploy U.S. forces from frontline combat to border security and counterterrorism."  It does not force him to implement the realignment.  (Washington Post) And it does not set a deadline for troop withdrawal.(Washington Post) 

For this reason, the Democrats aren't interested in cooperating in legislation that doesn't set a definite withdrawal date, according to Majority Leader Harry Reid.(Washington Post)

So again, now what?  Those involved in the fight to find a way out of Iraq might consider taking a long look at the report of the UK's independent Iraq Commission to Prime Minister Gordon Brown. 

The report is the work product of a committee chaired by representatives from each of Britain's three main parties. (The Independent)  Its findings " closely parallel those of the US's Iraq Study Group." (The Independent)   It was set up specifically to provide Gordon Brown with a road map out of Iraq. (The Independent) and to develop an "independent strategy" for the UK.(comment)

According to Margaret Jay, one of the co-chairs of the Commission, they concluded that "there are now no easy choices, only painful ones for the countries who led the invasion in 2003." (comment) The commission made 34 recommendations "designed to reduce the immediate chaos and violence, and in the longer term   to offer some strategies for stability and prosperity."(comment)  She summarizes the major themes thus: "[F]or security, we must reinvigorate the process of   reconciliation. For stability, we must protect Iraq's territorial integrity.   For prosperity, we must devise an economic plan for peace. For humanity, we   must protect the most vulnerable people. In diplomacy, we must lead and   build international and regional alliances."(comment)
 

The report stresses the need for the Brown government to promote diplomacy while beginning to wind down military operations by British troops.  (The Independent)   It report does not recommend setting a definite withdrawal date; it does however  recommend a major change to Blair's policy, which would have withdrawn British troops from Iraq "as and when security conditions allow."   (The Independent)   Instead of waiting till the day when security in Iraq has been achieved to begin troop withdrawals, the Commission recommends that British troops cease "offensive military actions" and instead concentrate on building up the Iraqi forces to a point where they can take over. In her comment at The Independent on Sunday, Margaret Jay writes, "There is a remarkable consensus that ultimately only Iraqis can improve Iraq, but in the short term they need our help." (comment)

We should  refocus our military activity, progressively ceasing offensive military   operations and bringing to completion the capacity building of the Iraqi security forces.... This does not mean we should "cut and run" or set   a fixed timetable for withdrawal. Doing so would simply give heart to our   enemies. As Bayan Rahman, the Kurdistan Regional Government High   Representative to the UK, told us: "Untimely withdrawal from Iraq would   send completely the wrong message to al-Qa'ida and to other terrorist   organisations. It would be seen as weakness and defeat."   That is why our central recommendation on British troop deployment is that   when the Iraqi forces complete their training, and are demonstrably capable,   they should assume responsibility for security.(comment)

A major feature of the report is its emphasis on diplomacy. "They have been looking for   military solutions when there are only political ones," said Lord Ashdown, one of the commission's three chairs.(The Independent)  The commission recommends that the Prime minister "launch a diplomatic offensive" led by a senior UN envoy to jump start Iraq's political process and foster political reconciliation. (The Independent) 

This "diplomatic offensive" would involve Iraq's neighbors, including Iran. 

In parallel, we need to internationalise the situation in Iraq. This doesn't   mean blue helmets on the ground, but using the diplomatic skills and   neutrality of the United Nations. There must be an urgent international   political effort under UN auspices, but backed by the US and the EU, which   involves Iraq's neighbours. All parties, including the neighbours, must   commit to a binding international treaty respecting Iraq's territorial   integrity.

  The US Iraq Study Group last December suggested a new diplomatic offensive   in which the Bush administration has only latterly shown interest. The UK   government, with much better diplomatic channels in the region, should take   a lead.(comment)

In addition, the report urges Brown's government to address a problem that doesn't get much play in the discussions here:

  The UK must do more to protect the most vulnerable communities. The two   million refugees who have fled Iraq, the one million refugees expected over   the next year and the two million Iraqis displaced within Iraq represent the   biggest refugee crisis since 1948. We have a moral duty to tackle this   humanitarian tragedy, and it is in our own interest to prevent what could   become a longer-term breeding ground for terrorism and insecurity in the   region. The size of the refugee problem is already threatening the political   stability of Syria and Jordan.  (comment)

The report makes it clear that that the UK should, if necessary, act "at variance" with the US.(The Independent)   Margaret Jay's commentary confirms this:  "The Iraq Commission report represents an independent strategy for the   British government. Some proposals diverge from positions taken by the US   administration. We believe that the British government should make clear   that this course of action reflects British and wider interests, and is the   most likely to reduce the violence and offer Iraqis a more stable future."(comment; emphasis mine).   

Will Gordon Brown follow these recommendations?  It's hard to see how he can do so without "distancing" himself from the Bush Administration, which he seems determined not to appear to be doing.    

Margaret Jay acknowledges in her comment that  "peace building" is a long-term project and that more bloodshed in the interim cannot be avoided.  But the Iraq Commission's report does strike me---admittedly someone with no specific knowledge of military and diplomatic strategy---to be a map to the middle road.   It doesn't leave the Iraqis high and dry or the UK committed to the region in perpetuity or until "security conditions allow," whichever comes first. 

And will Congress---and especially Congressional Democrats---take note of this approach (so different from what they propose)?

• President Unbowed as Benchmarks Are Unmet (Washington Post)
•  Shailagh Murray and Robin Wright, Two GOP Senators Defy Bush On Iraq (Washington Post)
• Bassem Mroue, Iraq PM: Country Can Manage Without U.S. (Washington Post)
• Megan Greenwell,  Iraq Can Handle Security, Maliki Says (Washington Post)
• As the War Debate Heats Up,  Stagnant Air Is in the Forecast (Washington Post)
• Initial Benchmark Assessment Report (IBAR/WSJ)
• Raymond Whitaker, Iraq commission tells Brown to replace troops with diplomacy (The Independent)
• Colin Brown, Commission seeks way out of Iraq for Brown  (The Independent)
• Margaret Jay, With the UN's Help, Britain Can Do a Lot for Iraq (comment)