Cockney Robin Deconstructs William Kristol's "Why Bush Will be a Success."

  Posted by Cockney Robin | When the blog administror asked me to give "the British perspective" on Mr William Kristol's column, "Why Bush Will be a Success," I wasn't initially sure I was up to the task because I don't actually understand the kind of conservative you have in the US.  Our sort are different.  For example, during this recent Prime Minister's Question Time, David Cameron----the British sort of conservative---gets all up in the newly minted Prime Minister's face to oppose anticipated cutbacks and closures to the financed-by-taxation National Health Service ("socialised medicine"  to you yanks).

FIG.1 [BRITISH CONSERVATIVE]

The column in question is called "Why Bush Will Be A Winner" and is not---repeat, not---either a parody or satire.  It is meant to be taken seriously.  Mark that, please, and bear it firmly in mind as you read my exegesis; otherwise, you might start to think that The Washington Post had published it in a spirit of irony and for the amusement of its readers.

With a crooked smile and ironically lifted brow, Mr Kristol begins, "I suppose I'll merely expose myself to harmless ridicule if I make the following assertion: George W. Bush's presidency will probably be a successful one.  Let's step back from the unnecessary mistakes and the self-inflicted wounds that have characterized the Bush administration." 

 

....but even then, I read the entire piece. I prepared an outline.  Here's what Mr Kristol thinks:

First, there are three key areas in which Bush is more successful than he seems:

1. Many people think Bush's presidency has been, and will continue to be, a failure, but if you look at it in perspective, 911 has been the only terrorist attack on US soil so far.  Success!
2. Also, it is a very good economy for you if you happen to be very wealthy or to own many shares in a large corporation.  Success!
3. It's now clear---to Mr Kristol--- that we can win the war in Iraq!  SUCCESS!

Here is a list of things Bush did that Mr Kristol believes contributed to his success on the domestic front:

1. Bush single-handedly gave tax cuts to business so it could grow bigger.  Success!
2. The "most universally criticised" "dire consequence" of these cuts, the budget deficit, isn't as dire as it used to be in 2003.  Success [relative]!
3. He has contributed to "global economic growth" by eschewing "domestic protectionist pressures" by business-hating Democrats and "outsourcing" many American jobs to the third world  Success!
4. The Medicare prescription drug benefit initiative hasn't been as disastrous as liberals and conservatives expected. Many seniors can now procure the drugs they need to live.  Success!
5. His failed initiatives (privatisation of social security and immigration reform) will eventually become law anyway when people realise he was right all along .Success [deferred]!
6. He managed to appoint two justices to the Supreme Court whom "progressives" really hate.  Success!

Here are all the ways he's been successful in combating terrorism. 

1. "Apart from Iraq," there has been much less terrorism than people thought there would be back on September 12, 2001, when a lot of people evidently were making predictions that there would be more.  It follows that Bush and Cheney did something right.  Post hoc ergo propter hoc!  "Apart from Iraq," there has been practically no terrorism at all anywhere. Bush has been a success!
2. "The war in Afghanistan is going reasonably well."  In other words, it's a success!
3. True, the "havens for terrorists" in "Western Pakistan" are "an increasing" problem and US intelligence agencies are "worried about a resurgent al-Qaeda---because al-Qaeda may once again have a place where it can, plan, organize, and train," and these "Waziristan havens may well have to be dealt with in the near future."  He assumes that Bush will deal with them "using some combination of air strikes and special operations."  Success [deferred]!

Foreign policy "has been mostly the usual mixed bag," and yet:  a success! 

1. The US is better friends than before with Japan and India (Success!  Success!).
2. Things aren't as bad as one might have predicted with Mexico and Brazil (Success!  Success!)
3. Bush "has gotten friendlier governments than expected" in countries such as France and Germany where people who don't understand freedom always used to hate him  (Success! Success!)
4. Relations with China aren't worse than they were (Success [relative]!). 
5. That's a lot of successes, so never mind the "slippage" in Russia or the situation in North Korea ("bad but containable"). Overall:  Success!

Then Mr Kristol says:

"But wait, wait, wait: What about Iraq? It's Iraq, stupid* -- you (and 65 percent of your fellow Americans) say -- that makes Bush an unsuccessful president.

[*his word]

Here are the reasons why those 65% of Americans are mistaken and  why Bush, a war president, is now and WILL BE a successful war president:

1. If you compare Iraq now to what it would be if Saddam Hussein were still running things and were "victorious" (?) with the result that the US and UN "backed off sanctions and the no-fly zone," he'd surely have got  nuclear weapons, which would be worse than what is going on in Iraq now.  Furthermore, he would be helping out al-Qaeda and there would be terrorist groups springing up everywhere, unlike now. Success [speculative]!
2. Bush will win the war in Iraq because now he has moved on past the failed strategy that was Rumsfeld's fault to the "surge" strategy which is sure to be a success if the US can sustain it for a year.  Bush can---and will--- "curb Tehran's meddling" to achieve a "real, though messy, victory in Iraq."  Success [deferred]!
3. Bush has found his "Ulysses S. Grant or his Creighton Abrams"  in General Petraeus. If he stops being so bloody apologetic about wanting this war to go on and on, and had more aides who believed he could win and who weren't pathetic sycophants attempting to placate "the foreign policy establishment":  Success [contingent]!
4. If Bush wins the war in Iraq the entire rest of the Middle East---finally convinced that freedom is better--- will "start to tip in the direction of our friends and away from the jihadists, the mullahs and the dictators."  Success [contingent]!
5. When he has brought democracy to Iraq and peace and freedom to the Middle East, he will be so popular that the country will be sure to elect a Republican president "who will (broadly) continue along the path of his post-9/11 foreign policy, nominate judges who solidify a Roberts-Alito court, make his tax cuts permanent and the like."  SUCCESS!  The proof of this is that even though a large percentage of the population currently do not like Bush, the Republican candidates aren't doing any worse in the extremely early stages of the election than the Democrats.  Furthermore, the Democrats in Congress are a lot of squabblers who will alienate the "base" and cause them all to vote Republican.   Success!
6. Voters will realize that having a Democrat for president will mean they are stuck with Democrats in everything and that somehow these Democrats will turn the Supreme Court into liberals again, or maybe get to appoint a justice who is a liberal.  SUCCESS!

Yes, if all this falls into place---and Mr Kristol seems pretty sure it is going to---Bush's presidency will have been an unmitigated success and realignment can at last resume!  HUZZAH!

See Cockney Robin's other posts here!

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