Posted by D. Cupples | Today's Washington Post said that Congress' recent 37% approval rating is "rivaling the president's low ratings." Is it valid to compare the approval ratings of Congress to those of a President? Consider ABC/WaPo's poll numbers back when Congress supported Bush and most Americans were unified by fear of terrorism and war:
Approval (Dec. 2001)
Congress 59%
President 86%
WaPo's own poll-number history shows two things: 1) it's rare for Congress to maintain even 50% approval ratings for extended periods (more data here ); and 2) Congress' ratings are often lower than the President's.
Why? I'm not sure. Perhaps it's because Congress has 535 members, while the President is one person. Even when Congress passes an unpopular bill by a slim margin, people may give the entire body negative credit.
The big question: Can Congress stay out of the doghouse to the extent that a president can?
Another troubling aspect of today's WaPo article was a quote from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY):
"The approval rating of this Congress is now down to what we believe is the lowest recorded point in polling history, having apparently squandered whatever political capital they may have achieved with the American people last November the 7th in a record short period of time."
The wording is unclear, but the implication seems to be that the new Dem-controlled Congress has hit an all-time low: an implication that other Republicans have repeated. Depending on the error margins, this new Congress (which started at 41%-43% approval in ABC/WaPo's January 2007 poll) probably has hit a low over the past seven months.
However, prior Congresses -- including when McConnell's party was in control -- had hit lower lows.
Below are few examples of Congresses under Democrat-, Republican- and bipartisan-control that had lower-than-37% approval in WaPo's polls:
Oct. 2006 31%-32%
May 2006 33%
Apr. 2006 35%
Mar. 1996 30%
Nov. 1995 27%
Oct. 1994 18%-21%
April 1992 17%
Oct. 1990 34%
June 1979 19%
Now consider other polls, which tend to render lower approval ratings than WaPo's polls do for the same time periods. My other recent post has tables showing approval ratings (from Gallup, WaPo, and AP) of the new Democrat-controlled Congress' first 7 months and the former Republican-controlled Congress' final 7 months. Below are the 7-month averages for each Congress (data from Polling Report):
Gallup WaPo/ABC AP/Ipsos
D-Congress 30% 40% 33%
R-Congress 26% 35% 27%
Not knowing the error margins, I don't know if the differences are significant. I don't even know if it's valid to compare the new Congress to the old Congress, given that the old Congress had more time to step on citizens' toes.
For other data and analysis, see Approval Ratings: What do the Numbers Mean?
.
Comments