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Iran's nuclear threat was never in doubt during its presidential campaign, but the post-election resistance
raised the possibility of some sort of regime change. That prospect
seems lost for the near future or for at least as long as it will take
Iran to finalize a deliverable nuclear weapons capability.
Accordingly, with no other timely option, the already compelling
logic for an Israeli strike is nearly inexorable. Israel is undoubtedly
ratcheting forward its decision-making process....With regime change off the table for the coming critical period in
Iran's nuclear program, Israel's decision on using force is both easier
and more urgent. Since there is no likelihood that diplomacy will start
or finish in time, or even progress far enough to make any real
difference, there is no point waiting for negotiations to play out. (John R. Bolton in WaPo)
by Damozel | Obama told Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that the US isn't prepared to jolly Iran along forever if Iran won't end its nuclear program. (NYT) Israel wants the "unwavering support" it got from George W. Bush. I'm sure it does. Sadly for Israel, the American people -- i.e., the people who pick the president -- no longer have unwavering faith that Israel is always right or will always do the right thing. See the video here.
by Damozel | Sarah Palin and many lefties who despise Sarah Palin are taken aback by Obama's unthinking "Special Olympics" gaffe -- even Sarah Palin can be right sometimes, it seems -- and we do well to be. Being shocked and disgusted is the right response to a joke implying a certain degree of disdain for the predicament of the disabled.
Dead babies, mothers weeping on their children's
graves, a gun aimed at a child and bombed-out mosques - these are a few
examples of the images Israel Defense Forces soldiers design these days
to print on shirts they order to mark the end of training, or of field
duty. The slogans accompanying the drawings are not exactly anemic
either: A T-shirt for infantry snipers bears the inscription "Better
use Durex," next to a picture of a dead Palestinian baby, with his
weeping mother and a teddy bear beside him.
by Deb Cupples | Saudi King Abdullah has pledged $1 billion toward rebuilding Gaza (Los Angeles Times). So far, the damage total is estimated at $2 billion, but the estimate will likely increase.
The LA Times continues with some heart-sinking details:
by Damozel | Now that Israel has "met its war aims" and the two sides have agreed to a one-week ceasefire, the BBC has a video and an update on the post-war humanitarian crisis.
UN official John Ging said half a million people had been without water
since the conflict began, and huge numbers of people were without
power.
Four thousand homes are ruined and tens of thousands of people are homeless....At least 1,300 Palestinians, according to Palestinian sources, and 13
Israelis have been killed since Israel launched its offensive on 27
December. Palestinian medical sources say at least 95 bodies have been
pulled from the rubble since Israel halted its assault.(BBC 1-19-2008; memeorandum)
Ging --- who is director of operations for the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (Unrwa)---says the biggest problem right now is getting basic supplies into Gaza.
"Hamas and other Palestinian militant groups in Gaza announced an immediate, week-long cease-fire in the conflict with Israel on Sunday, about 12 hours after an Israeli unilateral cease-fire went into effect...."
by Damozel | If Israel wins the war, what does it win? The Center for Strategic International Studies raises the question of the Israeli's strategic purpose in Gaza, after acknowledging that Israel have apparently made significant tactical gains and that Hamas's continuing rocket and mortar attacks were a threat, Anthony M. Cordesman addresses some of the other questions.
The fact
remains...that the growing human tragedy in Gaza is steadily
raising more serious questions as to whether the kind of tactical gains
that Israel now reports are worth the suffering involved. As of the
14th day of the war, nearly 800 Palestinian have died and over 3,000
have been wounded. Fewer and fewer have been Hamas fighters, while more
and more have been civilians.....
Has Israel somehow blundered into a steadily escalating war without a
clear strategic goal or at least one it can credibly achieve? Will
Israel end in empowering an enemy in political terms that it defeated
in tactical terms? Will Israel’s actions seriously damage the US
position in the region, any hope of peace, as well as moderate Arab
regimes and voices in the process?...
by Damozel | According to The Guardian, at least three incoming officials in the Obama Administration say that Obama is willing to talk with Hamas. Such a policy is supported by Obama's choice for Middle East envoy, Richard Haass, who has been a diplomat under Bush 41 and 43. (The Guardian)
I don't understand why there are any objections to this. It isn't as if Bush's policies have exactly gone a long way toward bringing peace to Israel or the Middle East generally. I can't understand the people who think that the best way to address failed policies is to do more of the same, only more so. Isn't that meant to be a marker for insanity? And apparently even some Republicans are coming round to the idea that a change of policy is going to be required.
by Deb Cupples| The New York Times reports that Israeli forces started a ground attack in Gaza, sending in tanks and troops last night. Haaretz.com reports that 28 Israeli soldiers have been wounded so far.
Also yesterday, masses of Palestinians mourned losses resulting from the Israeli bombings and reportedly vowed revenge. The Daily Mail reports:
"The bodies of a senior Hamas leader's small children were today
ghoulishly paraded through the streets of Gaza as the group pledged to
avenge their deaths."
Israel is poised to launch a major ground offensive into Gaza tonight after
allowing hundreds of foreigners living in the devastated territory to
evacuate.
After a week of air strikes that have killed at least 420 Palestinians and
left scores of buildings in rubble, the Israeli army was set to fling
hundreds of troops and tanks into a blitz to stamp out Hamas’s military
wing, The Times understands (Times of London).
The UN says that more than a quarter killed so far have been civilians. (Reuters) Their sufferings continue to be severe. Meanwhile, Hamas does its all to keep the violence going:
It's heartbreaking. CNN has footage of destruction in Gaza and interviews a journalist who has personal ties to Gaza. It's about six minutes and well worth watching.
Reportedly, hospitals aren't functioning well, food is in short supply, and power outages are prevalent (Gaza Today). More than 1,700 are wounded, many of whom are civilians. Of the 360 people killed, more than 60 are women and children.
Ehud Barak, Israel's defence minister, who has already said his
government does not want another ceasefire with Hamas, said his army
was fighting a "war to the bitter end". Israel declared the border area
around Gaza a closed military zone which, together with preparations
for a call-up of thousands of reservists, could suggest a large ground
invasion is planned next. Barak said the military campaign would be
"widened and deepened as needed". (The Guardian)
The Guardian reports 335 dead in Gaza. But there have been civilian deaths on both sides:
by Teh Nutroots | Useless to the end----that's W. You'd think he'd be satisfied with the very long vacation he has coming up, which will last till he, like Brother Jeb, decides to run for Congress. Meanwhile, Israel rages through Gaza and---whatever you think about the justice of its action---the US sits on the sidelines, with neither the sitting president nor the president-elect apparently willing to make a public statement. (Think Progress)
by Damozel | The current death toll is 225, according to The New York Times. And there are more airstrikes to come.
Israeli military officials said the airstrikes, which went on into the
night, were the start of what could be days or even months of an effort
to force Hamas to end its rocket barrages into southern Israel. The operation could include ground forces, a senior Israeli security official said.
Palestinian
officials said that most of the dead were security officers for Hamas,
including two senior commanders, and that at least 600 people had been
wounded in the attacks. (NYT)
Barak Ravid, Haaretz correspondent, says that the operation has been in preparation for six months and was the fruit of "[l]ong-term preparation, careful gathering of
information, secret discussions, operational deception and the
misleading of the public."
by Deb Cupples | CNN reports that Israeli air strikes on Gaza have killed at least 170 people and wounded at least 250 more. The strikes came after Hamas reportedly launched missile attacks against Isreal, which reportedly happened after the six-month cease fire between Israel and Hamas was allowed to expire. The Egyptian government has sent personnel and supplies to help treat the injured in Gaza.
The Associated Press reports that a spokesperson for Hamas called upon Arab nations "to take a stance against this massacre and not to be satisfied with just condemnations."
BBC News reports that both sides are blaming each other for the escalation of violence:
