Time to Compare Pre-Primary Polls Again
by D. Cupples | Once again, the polls are conflicting over which Democrat is ahead in Pennsylvania: Hillary or Barack. I can't wait to see which pollsters end up being wrong. Below are results from a few polls taken over the last week:
..............SurveyUSA......PPP......Mason Dixon....Gallup....Rasmussen.....ARG
................(Apr 15).............(Apr 14-15).......(Apr 17-18)..........(Apr 17-18).....(Apr 17)......(Apr 17-19)
Clinton........54%...........42%..............48%..............45%..........47%.............54%
Obama.........40%............45%.............43%...............47%..........44%.............41%
Less than a week ago, Gallup polls had Obama ahead by 11 points.
On April 15-16, Zogby's polls had Hillary leading Obama 45%-44%. On April 17-18, Zogby shows Hillary at 47% and Barack at 42%.
Zogby distinguished itself via pre-election polls that were markedly different from the actual results of the Democratic contests in Iowa, New Hampshire, and California.
Somehow, polls tended to agree before the Potomac primaries -- and they tended to be in the ballpark with the actual election results. That's not a solid enough success rate for me to put money on any pre-election polls.
Despite the fact that polls can easily turn out to be wrong -- and that some polls conflict though taken around the same time -- many media outlets continue parroting the polling numbers as though they definitely mean something.
Memeorandum has commentary.
Other BN-Politics Posts:
* Democrats Do Want Change -- in DNC Leadership
* Con Job: Pentagon used Analysts to Manipulate Media
* High Prices at the Gas Pump: All you Need is a Tax Holiday?
Comments