Ohio and Texas: Pre-Primary Polls Conflict Again

by D. Cupples |  Those pre-primary polls keep insisting on conflicting, just as they did before California's primary.  Below are some recent polling numbers for Texas and Ohio (taken from February 27 through March 3).

Texas

...................Zogby.....Insider Advantage........SurveyUSA....Rasmussen......PPP
..................(2/29-3/3).............(2/27-3/2)...................(3/1-3/2)............(3/2)............(3/1-3/2)

Clinton..........44%.....................49%..............................48%...................47%...............50%

Obama..........47%....................44%...............................49%..................48%...............44%

Ohio

................Zogby.......Quinnipiac.....SurveyUSA....Rasmussen......PPP.....Ohio Poll
...............(2/29-3/3)........(2/27-3/2)............(3/1-3/2).............(3/2)..........(3/1-3/2)....(2/38-3/2)

Clinton.......45%................49%....................54%...................50%..............51%.........51%

Obama.......47%...............45%.....................44%...................44%...............42%..........42%

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Chances are that some of these polls are wrong -- right now.  We just don't know which ones.  I hope that no one will bet serious money on tomorrow's primaries based on the polls. 

More importantly, I hope that no voter will be dissuaded from going to the polls simply because it looks like his or her candidate either has it sewn up or doesn't have a prayer.

To see what then-recent polling data looked like three days ago, click here. 

Incidentally, Rush Limbaugh has urged Texas Republicans to vote for Clinton in the state's open primary (CNN via Memeorandum).  No, the sky hasn't fallen: some Republicans just figure that Hillary would be easier than Obama for McCain to beat in November -- not that Republicans are at all thrilled by the thought of McCain in the White House.  They're just picking what they consider to be the lesser of evils.

It'll be interesting to see whether the Limbaugh effect throws the polls further out of whack.

Other BN-Politics Posts:

* Hillary Clinton (Candidates' Positives, Part I)

* Obama: Because I Remember (Candidate Positives, Pt. II)

* Zogby Tells Jon Stewart about Limits of Polling (video)

* Not Just New Hampshire: Some Pre-Iowa Polls were Wrong

* MSNBC's Bizarre Debate Coverage

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Comments

[Dyre42]

I find that is best to average the polls and then use pollster.com's charts of the polls to
figure out whose moving upwards or downwards just before a primary.

[D. Cupples]

Dyre,

How've you been?

I find it better not to rely on polls, though I do post them partly because many people get comfort from numbers.

I'm no stats expert, but I remember back when I first took stats in school, I was amazed by the assumptions and qualifiers that come with polling data.