Primary Results and how the Polls Compare

Here are most results from yesterday's primaries (courtesy of the Associated Press):

................Ohio......Rhode Island......Texas Primary.....Texas Caucus .....Vermont

Clinton........54%...........58%......................51%..............................?.........................59%

Obama........44%............40%......................47%...............................?........................39%

Below are tables of a few poll results for Ohio and Texas.

Pre-Primary Ohio Polls

................Zogby.......Quinnipiac.....SurveyUSA....Rasmussen......PPP.....Ohio Poll
...............(2/29-3/3)........(2/27-3/2)............(3/1-3/2).............(3/2)..........(3/1-3/2)....(2/38-3/2)

Clinton.......45%................49%....................54%...................50%..............51%.........51%

Obama.......47%...............45%.....................44%...................44%...............42%..........42%

Clinton took Ohio by about 10 points.  Thus, PPP and The Ohio Poll came the closest in terms of point spread (11 points), with Survey USA (10 points) next in line.  Zogby called the wrong winner and was a tad off on the margin (2 points).

Zogby did a new poll in Ohio (taken March1-3, released on Mar 4), showing Clinton and Obama tied at 44% (0 points).  At least the poll didn't call the wrong winner.

Pre-Primary Texas Polls

...................Zogby.....Insider Advantage........SurveyUSA....Rasmussen......PPP
..................(2/29-3/3).............(2/27-3/2)...................(3/1-3/2)............(3/2)............(3/1-3/2)

Clinton..........44%.....................49%..............................48%...................47%...............50%

Obama..........47%....................44%...............................49%..................48%...............44%

Clinton won the Texas primary by 4 points, but the Texas caucus still hasn't been fully counted. 

Zogby did a new poll in Texas, (taken Mar 1-3) which reversed the results of the poll listed in the table above (taken Feb 29-Mar3).  Zogby's new poll reversed the results, giving Clinton 47% and Obama 44%, which was in the ball park.

About Texas: as I understand it, two-thirds of Texas' delegates are assigned based on the primary, and one-third are assigned based on the caucus.  The Texas caucus happened after the primary polls closed and lasted for a limited amount of time.

Nearly 3 million people voted in the Texas primary.  With 37% reporting, nearly 40,000 voted in the caucus.

The New York Times has a summary of last night's election.  Memeorandum has other bloggers' commentary: The Carpetbagger Report, The Swamp, Brendan Nyhan, NY Daily News, MSNBC, Boston Globe, American Street and normblog.

Related Buck Naked Politics  Posts:

* Poll: 67% Want Hillary to Keep Fighting even if She Loses TX or OH

* Gov. Crist Supports New Primary for Dems

* Hillary Clinton (Candidates' Positives, Part I)

* Obama: Because I Remember (Candidate Positives, Pt. II)