Pre-Primary Polls Vary: Numbers Deserve Skepticism

by  D. Cupples | With Super-Duper Tuesday one day away, polls abound.  so should skepticism.  Election-related polling data is limited, as it's based on a relatively small number of survey participants (usually rom 400 - 3000) who say that they are "likely voters." 

Those "likely voters" are people who have the time and inclination to participate in phone surveys.  Pollster John Zogby told Jon Stewart that far more people refuse to participate (see video) -- thus, refusers' opinions are not included in the polling data.

To show that even polls about the same topic can vary, I've listed numbers from four polls below.

Though 24 states will have primaries or caucuses tomorrow, I chose polling numbers only from California, as it's our nation's largest state.

California: Democrats

                    Zogby       Rasmussen     Mason Dixon     Field

Clinton         41%                 44%                   45%                 36%

Obama          45%                 45%                  36%                 34%

Gravel             1%                   -                        -                        -

Und/Other    15%                   5%                   16%                 18%

.

California: Republicans

                      Zogby       Rasmussen     Mason Dixon     Field

McCain          34%                 38%                 40%                32%

Romney          37%                 38%                31%                24%

Huckabee       12%                 10%                13%                 13%

Paul                  5%                    6%                  3%                10%

Und/Other      13%                    6%                 11%                21%

.
Depending upon which poll you believe, Hillary Clinton could be 9 points ahead of Barack Obama in California or 4 points behind.  Similarly, John McCain could be 9 points ahead of Mitt Romney or 3 points behind.

For those interested in seeing glaringly different poll results about how the presidential candidates are doing nationwide, compare the Gallup and Pew Research polls.

The New Hampshire primary showed that actual results can differ vastly from pollsters' and pundits' pre-election predictions.  Thus, I would be careful about buying into "conventional wisdom" based on polling data and punditry. 

More specifically, I would not allow polling numbers to dissuade me from voting (e.g., "my candidate is way ahead, so I don't need to vote" or "my candidate is losing, so there's no point").

Memeorandum has other bloggers' commentary.

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