Posted by D. Cupples | My home state of Florida will tally its presidential primary votes today, though early voting started about two weeks ago. At this point, it looks like Democratic voters' votes won't really count because of troubles with the national party, but mine is a big state, so people still want to see how the candidates do in Florida.
The pollsters' and pundits' failure to even hit the dartboard regarding the New Hampshire primary a few weeks ago has stoked my curiosity about how their predictions will pan out regarding Florida. I thought I'd collect some pre-vote-count poll numbers, so that tomorrow night I can compare them to the actual results.
Quinnipiac's surveys (from Pollster.com) of likely Florida voters (481 Democrats and 585 Republicans ) show:
Ds Rs
Clinton 50% McCain 32%
Obama 30% Romney 31%
Edwards 12% Giuliani 14%
Huckabee 13%
Rasmussen's surveys of likely Florida voters (474 Democrats and 578 Republicans) show:
Ds Rs
Clinton 47% McCain 31%
Obama 25% Romney 31%
Edwards 16% Giuliani 16%
Huckabee 11%
Those are just a few examples, and I can't wait to compare them to the actual results (hopefully, some time tomorrow night, unless my state's voting machines mess up yet again).
Incidentally, a Politico/CNN/L.A. Times poll re: California's (primary on Feb. 5) puts Clinton at 49%, Obama at 32%, and Edwards at 14%. On the Republican side, the poll shows McCain at 39%, Romney at 26%, Giuliani at 13%, and Huckabee at 11%. California is our nation's largest state, and Florida is the fourth largest.
We'll know the real results soon enough. I hope that the pundits refrain from getting caught up in the prediction frenzy. Memeorandum has other bloggers' reactions.
Other BN-Politics Posts:
* Jon Stewart: Zogby Touches on Limits of Polling
* South Carolina Dem Primary: Pollsters Sort-of got it Right
* It's not Just New Hampshire: Some Polls Got Iowa Wrong
* Something Amiss at Gallup: Approval Ratings & Mid-East Peace Talks
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